Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 427616 points, up or down + 2.43% in one week and - 13.47% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 328272, up or down + 2.19% in one week and - 9.62% year to date. Among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, the top three rose last week were real estate (+ 10.82%), building materials (+ 6.29%) and banks (+ 5.18%); The top three declines were Electronics (- 3.10%), national defense and military industry (- 2.28%) and non-ferrous metals (- 1.97%). The agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose 14.08% last week. Since the beginning of the year, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector has increased or decreased by - 0.76%, ranking fifth.
[key information]
[national development and Reform Commission: carry out the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year] on March 31, according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the recent pig grain price ratio continued to be lower than 5:1, which was in the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline determined in the plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of pork market. The development and Reform Commission and relevant parties carried out the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year. It is planned to collect and store 40000 tons of frozen pork on April 2 and 3.
[Key announcement]
[ Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ] Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ] announced on the evening of March 31 that the net profit in the first quarter is expected to reach 350 million yuan to 450 million yuan, an increase of 264% to 368% year-on-year compared with 96.14 million yuan in the same period of last year, and the deduction of non net profit is also within the above range. On the evening of March 30, Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) disclosed the annual report of 2021, realizing an annual operating revenue of 9.797 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.39%; The net profit was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.74%.
[opinion]
Pig breeding: pig prices continued to rise, and the central collection and storage boosted confidence. According to Yongyi information data, on April 1, the price of pigs was 12.37 yuan / kg, up 2.74% on a weekly basis. The national development and Reform Commission plans to collect and store 40000 tons of frozen pork on April 2 and 3, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of pig prices. In the short term, due to the obstruction of marketing caused by covid-19 epidemic in some regions, the pig price continued to rise this week, but the reversal of the overall loose supply and demand fundamentals has not yet come. At present, the downstream consumer demand of the pig market is weak, superimposed with the increase of feed costs, the pig price is in a state of shock, and the clearing of production capacity may show an accelerated trend. It is suggested to grasp the opportunity of layout on the left and pay attention to enterprises with stable production and operation.
Seed industry: Science and technology drive the freedom of seed sources, and actively layout the planting industry chain. On March 30, the people's Bank of China proposed to increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies such as soybeans and oil. On March 28, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas pointed out that the seed industry should be self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, and the seed sources should be controlled independently. In terms of market, the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine is not clear, which may lead to further tightening of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply. We believe that the grain price may remain high during the year, and the upward elasticity of the performance of grain planting enterprises is expected to be released.
Investment advice
Pig breeding: the pig market has loose supply and stable demand in the short term. The central collection and storage action has boosted the confidence of the industry, and the pig price is expected to continue to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with stable production and operation.
Seed industry: the upward elasticity of the performance of grain planting enterprises is expected to be released. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with biological breeding R & D advantages and high-quality variety resources and germplasm resources.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Non plague situation; The pig price is lower than expected; Fluctuations in grain prices, etc.
