Market review last week:
Last week (03.28-04.01), the social service sector (Shenwan) rose by 2.96%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.29%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 2.43%. The social service sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.77 percentage points last week, ranking 10th among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 34 primary sub industries.
Core view: according to the Hainan Department of Commerce, in the first two months of this year, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 12.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%. However, in terms of offshore duty-free, sales have been impacted since March. From March 1 to 23, the total sales of 10 offshore duty-free stores in Hainan were 2.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year downward trend. Since March, the epidemic situation in some parts of China has affected repeatedly. Since March 3, the business of China free Sanya International duty-free city has been suspended in cooperation with epidemic prevention work. After that, a notice was issued in the evening of March 7. From March 8, the first and second phases of CDF Sanya International duty-free city have resumed business. From March 1 to 27 (excluding some incomplete data), the number of inbound and outbound flights at Haikou Meilan Airport reached 7407, a decrease of 35.51% over the same period last year; The number of passengers transported reached 896200, a decrease of 44.54% over the same period last year. The number of inbound and outbound flights at Sanya Phoenix Airport reached 4484, a decrease of 52.44% over the same period last year. From the perspective of the epidemic situation, the normal operation of duty-free shops in Hainan has been impacted. The current epidemic situation is partially repeated. On March 30, the culture and Tourism Administration held a regular press conference in the first quarter of 2022, which said that the outbound team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business will not be resumed temporarily, and the travel restrictions formed by the prevention and control policy and the negative impact on the consumption scene of duty-free industry still exist. However, judging from the tax-free and bright sales performance of Hainan outlying islands in the first two months of this year, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation in the future, the tax-free industry is expected to achieve a strong recovery momentum. From the perspective of duty-free enterprises themselves, while strictly grasping the epidemic prevention and control, the 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan have actively launched a series of consumption promotion activities to enhance the popularity of the outlying island duty-free market. Tax free enterprises and relevant departments in Hainan have joined hands to set up tax-free zones on outlying islands on the home page of the “Haiyi office” platform to improve the convenience of tax-free shopping. From the perspective of external environment and policy support, the introduction of the 14th five year plan for tourism development shows that the state attaches importance to the development of tourism and tax-free industry. At the same time, it has issued relief policies such as tax relief to support the development of tourism, catering, hotel, tax-free and other industries seriously affected by the epidemic, providing strong support for the recovery of the prosperity of corresponding industries. Meanwhile, China’s New Coronavirus pneumonia treatment plan (trial version ninth) has been released. In some cases, the shortening of isolation time, the application of antigen detection, the adjustment of the isolation / discharge standard, and the increase of Pfizer oral small molecules in treatment methods have shown the rapid progress of the country in the comprehensive prevention and control of epidemic situation and the treatment of epidemic. The recurrence of the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has had an impact on the tax-free sales in Hainan in March. However, the short-term negative impact does not change the development logic of long-term policy support of the industry + rapid improvement of its own service quality. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise, and the performance of duty-free sales in Hainan is expected to achieve sustained high growth.
Company announcement and industry information:
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) : it is proposed to transfer 16226000 shares (accounting for 8.71% of the total share capital of the company) held by Liyang urban construction and Development Group Co., Ltd Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) : Guofeng Group Co., Ltd. has reduced 7219147 shares of the company through centralized bidding and block trading through Shanghai Securities Exchange, accounting for 3.18% of the total share capital of the company. After this equity change, Guofeng Group Co., Ltd. holds 11348200 shares of the company, accounting for 499997% of the total share capital of the company Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : apply for financial assistance with an estimated total amount of less than 2.5 billion yuan from the controlling shareholder Beijing Capital Tourism Group Co., Ltd. and its related party Beijing Capital Tourism Group Finance Co., Ltd. for various capital needs of the company and its holding subsidiaries Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) : acquire 89.99% equity of new energy company to provide low-carbon, environmental protection and green support for the company’s business development and product iteration. Before this capital increase, the registered capital of the new energy company was 10 million yuan, and Hainan group held 100% of its equity. The company and the real estate company intend to increase the capital of the new energy company with their 100% equity of the hydropower company, and Hainan group waives the preemptive right.
Investment suggestions:
Duty free industry: we are optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of the duty-free industry supported by the recovery of passenger flow. The related targets are China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , which is expected to show a recovery in revenue and profit after the recovery of passenger flow. Hotel Industry: the upgrading of industry structure and chain trend are obvious, the brand, scale and management advantages of leading hotel groups are obvious, and there is good growth space in the future. Related targets include leading enterprises Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group. Catering and Tourism: the trend of industry chain is obvious, and attention is paid to the expansion and business performance of leading catering enterprises. The relevant targets include seabed fishing, sipping and sipping.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Policy supervision risk.
