\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 13.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.30%; EPS2. 41 yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
2021 is the first year to complete the company’s asset injection and reorganization. It has achieved many goals, such as leading growth in the industry, rapid growth of large single products, common growth of product portfolio and promoting “common towards zero goal”.
Wusu accelerated its growth and its product portfolio grew together
The company’s main business of beer achieved a simultaneous rise in volume and price, with a sales volume of 2.7894 million kiloliters in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 15.1%, nearly three times the industry average (+ 5.6%); The price per ton was 4703.2 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.2%. In terms of grades, the high-end beer represented by Wusu and Carlsberg increased significantly. The revenue / volume / price increased by 43.5% / 40.5% / 2.1% respectively, and the proportion of revenue increased to 35.7%. Among them, 1664 white beer increased by 36%, Wusu increased by 34%, and Wusu outside Xinjiang increased by more than 50%, driving the continuous improvement of the overall structure of the company; Both the mainstream and the economy also achieved a simultaneous increase in volume and price. The revenue / volume / price of mainstream products represented by Lebao and Chongqing increased by 10.8% / 10.6% / 0.2% respectively, and the revenue / volume / price of economic products represented by Shancheng and Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) increased by 10.6% / 4.1% / 6.2% respectively. All product combinations grew together. In terms of sub regions, the revenue of Northwest / central / southern regions increased by + 25.2% / + 13.6% / + 28.0% year-on-year respectively, and both volume and price increased simultaneously, of which the sales volume increased by + 20.7% / + 12.2% / + 13.4% year-on-year respectively, and the ton price increased by + 3.7% / + 1.3% / + 12.8% year-on-year respectively. The sales growth in northwest regions was the fastest, mainly due to the price increase in Xinjiang and the weakening impact of the epidemic. The ton price growth in southern regions was the fastest, mainly due to Wusu, Guangdong, Fujian and other southern provinces 1664 and other rapid volume driven ton price increase.
The gross profit margin increased + the expense rate decreased, and the profitability continued to lead the industry
The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 21 years were 50.9% and 18.29% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.33 and + 2.27pct respectively. The increase of gross profit margin and the decrease of expense rate promoted the improvement of profitability. Specifically, although the cost side of the company is facing the pressure of rising raw material prices, it has actively responded through structural upgrading + price increase, realizing an increase in gross profit margin of 0.33pct. On the cost side, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates in the past 21 years were 16.9% / 3.9% / 1.2% / – 0.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.2 / – 2.3 / + 0.5 / – 0.2pct respectively. The sales expense rate decreased significantly, mainly due to the more effective advertising and marketing expenses and the impact of the epidemic on the rhythm of some expenses. The decrease in management expenses was mainly due to the improvement of organizational optimization efficiency and the cost savings brought by the implementation of operation cost management projects. Due to the difference in the caliber of minority shareholders, the comparability of the net profit margin attributable to the parent company is not high. In terms of net profit compared with the net profit margin, it reached 18.3% in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3pct, and the profitability of the company continues to lead the industry.
The growth of large items is not over yet, and Carlsberg continues to set sail 27
In the short term, January February is the peak sales season of the Spring Festival. The whole industry was impacted by the epidemic in March, but it is expected that the company is still expected to achieve sales growth in the first quarter, leading the industry. The epidemic is expected to basically end before the peak summer season, weakening the impact on the industry and the company. The company has locked in core raw materials such as barley, hops and packaging materials in advance. Although the cost side is under pressure, the price increase of large single products and the upgrading of product structure are expected to effectively alleviate the pressure on the cost side, and the profit growth is still good.
The rapid development of heavy beer in the past two years is inseparable from the explosive growth of Wusu outside Xinjiang. Wusu has rapidly improved its brand popularity nationwide with excellent quality, unique tonality and rapid regional expansion. Wusu’s expansion outside Xinjiang is not over yet. With the further optimization of organization (BU adjustment) + production capacity (technical transformation in Xinjiang and new addition outside Xinjiang) + market (extending from big cities to the whole market) + brand (online red brand, matrix Marketing) + price increase + product matrix (Loulan secret brew and small bottle), Wusu is expected to become another large beer product with a capacity of more than one million tons in China and continuously improve its scale.
In Carlsberg’s high-end brand matrix, there are still international high-end brands such as 1664, Xia Rifan and Greenberg, as well as strong brands with regional characteristics such as Chongqing, Xixia and Fenghuaxueyue, which have reserved a rich brand portfolio for continuous growth. We are optimistic that the company will continue to “sail 27” in the next five years, promote the high-end products, promote the continuous innovation of sales model and the continuous improvement of supply chain efficiency, and improve the profit quality and industry market share of heavy beer.
Profit forecast
Referring to the latest annual report, we adjusted the forecast of the company’s operating revenue of 15.586/17.290 billion yuan in 22-23 years to 15.388/17.590 billion yuan, and increased the forecast of 24-year operating revenue of 19.52 billion yuan; Adjust eps2 in 22-23 years The forecast of 96 / 3.67 yuan will reach 305 / 374 million yuan, with a new 24-year forecast of 434 yuan; Corresponding to the closing price of 112.16 yuan / share on April 1, 2022, PE is 37 / 30 / 26 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials rose, industry competition intensified, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
