\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 129 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) )
Event: on April 2, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) again raised the quotation of silicon wafers, and the price of single crystal silicon wafers with different sizes increased by 0.14-0.21 yuan / piece. one hundred and sixty μ The price of 166 / 182 / 210 / 218mm thick silicon wafer is 5.64/6.79/9.05/9.77 yuan / wafer, with a month on month ratio of 2.55% / 2.11% / 2.26% / 2.20%. one hundred and fifty μ M thickness 166 / 182 / 210 / 218mm, size price 5.54/6.67/8.85/9.57 yuan / piece respectively, ring on ring ratio + 2.60% / 2.14% / 2.31% / 2.24% respectively.
The price of silicon wafer has increased for many times, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected that the company's shipment in 22 years is expected to increase significantly. Due to the price rise of upstream silicon materials for many times, the demand for photovoltaic downstream is strong, and the production scheduling of module enterprises is good. The company's silicon wafer price has increased four times since the middle and late January. The increase of silicon wafer price helps the company improve its profitability. It is expected that the company's shipment in 22 years will increase significantly, of which 210 large sizes account for about 70%. The shipment structure is further optimized, and the company's future performance growth is highly uncertain.
The trend of wafer flaking and large size is obvious. The company's recent quotation only includes 160 / 150 μ m. At present, the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafer is accelerating, tending to be thin and large-scale, and due to the high price of silicon material. Silicon wafers are expected to switch to thinner specifications in the future. The production of thinner silicon wafer has higher requirements for production technology. The company has deeply cultivated silicon materials for many years and will be in a leading position in the industry in the process of wafer slicing in the future.
The company's 210 product yield and a product rate are leading in the industry, and there is great room for cost reduction. Due to the larger area of 210 silicon wafer, the fragmentation rate will be higher when slicing. Through technical accumulation and years of deep cultivation in the industry, the company has led the industry in the production efficiency of single furnace, and the unit silicon consumption has decreased significantly year-on-year. At present, the yield and a product rate of 210 products are much ahead of competitors and have cost advantages. The company's production line has a high degree of automation, and the late development advantage of industrial 4.0 is significant. The cost of large-size silicon wafers is expected to continue to decline in the future.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 4.20/61.69/7.624 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 269.2% / 53.5% / 23.6%, and EPS of RMB 1.24/1.91/2.36, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, and the price rise of upstream raw materials is higher than expected
