China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ( China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ) the company's revenue recovered 60% in 2021 and its performance turned from loss to profit. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 8.635 billion yuan / + 20.76%, with a recovery of about 60%; The performance attributable to the parent company was 212331 million yuan, turning losses into profits (a loss of 232 million yuan in 2020), deducting a non performance loss of 115 million yuan, a year-on-year loss of 280 million yuan, and eps0 03 yuan, which is basically consistent with the performance forecast. Q4 company's revenue was 2.404 billion yuan / - 3.95%, only recovering 50%, with an increase of 29.56% compared with Q3's revenue. The pace of Q4's recovery dropped significantly, with a performance loss of 16.03 million yuan, which continued to be under pressure.
Under the difference of tourist source, the recovery rhythm of scenic spots is differentiated, and the recovery of integrated marketing business is relatively good. In 2021, the passenger flow of Wuzhen scenic spot was 3.6873 million person times / + 22.10%, excluding the impact of real estate business, the income was + 13.65%, the passenger flow and income only recovered to about 40% before the epidemic, and the net profit was 582024 million yuan / - 57.03%, only 7.21% in 2019. Excluding the impact of real estate and subsidies, the net profit of Wuzhen scenic spot decreased by 59.75 million yuan compared with 2020. Gubeishui town received 1520100 tourists / + 30.43% in 2021, with an income of 768 million yuan / + 34.32%, and the passenger flow and income recovered by 60% and 80% respectively; The net profit was 54.656 million yuan, turning losses into profits (loss of 171 million yuan in 2020), returning to about 37% in 2019. The recovery rhythm of Wuzhen obviously lags behind Gubei, which is related to the dominant characteristics of long-distance passenger flow. In other businesses, the integrated marketing revenue recovered 60%, the net interest rate was close to the pre epidemic level, the IT business revenue exceeded the pre epidemic level, while the travel agency business continued to be under pressure. Although the hotel revenue recovered 60%, the performance was still dragged down.
Track the development of China's epidemic situation in the short term and pay attention to the integration and expansion of medium and long-term resources. Since this year, the epidemic disturbance still affects the short-term performance of the company, but the company also continues to enrich the connotation of Wuzhen and Gubei scenic spots to prepare for subsequent recovery. Considering the ice and snow heat after the Winter Olympics, Gubei is expected to benefit from ice and snow tourism in the future. Relying on the support of Everbright financial holding group, the company will see the continuous optimization and leisure vacation upgrading of Wuzhen and gubeishui town scenic spots in the future; Second, look at the progress of Puyuan project, which is expected to be launched within this year; Third, the company should expand new resources and business growth points under the condition of stabilizing stock business. The company previously participated in Qingdu tourism, planned to be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and cooperated with France madman country. In the future, it plans to build immersive performance projects and actively expand new business growth.
Investment suggestion: the valuation is low and the quality of the scenic spot is good. Track the recovery and maintain "buying". Considering the repeated impact of the epidemic since this year, we reduced the company's EPS from 22-24 years to 0.22/0.70/0.84 yuan (it was estimated that the EPS from 22-23 years was 0.70/0.99 yuan in the interim report last year, which was mainly due to the reduction of the profit forecast of scenic spot passenger flow revenue due to epidemic factors), corresponding to pe57 / 17 / 15x from 22-24 years. The short-term epidemic still needs to be tracked, but the current market valuation of the company is at a low level, the core scenic spots are of good quality, and there are still expectations of integration and expansion in the middle line, so the "buy" rating is temporarily maintained.
Risk tips: macro, epidemic and other systemic risks; Gubei's equity transfer may be lower than expected; Everbright integration may be lower than expected; Ticket price reduction policy risk
