\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Key points
2021 performance release: operating revenue + 20% year-on-year to RMB 75.11 billion, net profit attributable to parent company after deduction + 24% year-on-year to RMB 5.98 billion; Among them, 4q21's operating revenue increased by + 1% / - 4% year-on-year to RMB 19.99 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction increased by + 216% / + 164% month-on-month to RMB 1.4 billion. Due to the sales volume of 4q21 GAC motor + ea'an increased by + 24% / + 36%, the gross profit margin increased by + 0.6pcts / + 1.8pcts to 8.1% month-on-month, and the share of joint venture investment income increased by + 57% / + 103% month-on-month.
Independent stabilization and improvement, joint venture contribution increased: 1) in 2021, GAC motor / ea'an's sales volume increased by + 10% / + 102% to 320000 / 120000, and the gross profit margin increased by + 1.3pcts to 6.1% (gross profit margin of vehicle business increased by + 1.5pcts to 4.1%), mainly due to the scale effect driven by the improvement of independent sales volume, the accrual of ea'an's automobile integral income, business policy recycling and other cost reduction measures to hedge the pressure of rising raw material prices. 2) 2021 should account for + 19% of the investment income of joint ventures and associates year-on-year to RMB 11.4 billion; Among them, we estimate that the profit of guangben bicycle is + 8% to RMB 11000 (sales volume is - 3%) year-on-year, the profit of Guangfeng bicycle is + 15% to RMB 18000 (sales volume is + 8%) year-on-year, and the continuous loss of guangfick / guangmitsubishi is dragged down (sales volume is - 50% / - 12% year-on-year).
The new models showed a good trend, and gac-ea hybrid reform + spin off and listing were carried out in an orderly manner: 1) independent new models showed a good trend; Among them, GAC motor's product structure was improved (the sales volume of shadow Leopard / second-generation gs8 / M8 was stable), and GAC AIAN further improved the product matrix of the main electric vehicle market priced at RMB 10 China Tianying Inc(000035) 0000. We are optimistic about the sales growth prospects driven by the steady recovery of GAC motor + the listing of new models such as yingku, and the sales climbing trend driven by ai'an technology upgrading / product power improvement + capacity expansion under the rhythm of gradual improvement of chip shortage. 2) 2022e Guangfeng has a strong model cycle (including Saina, fenglanda, Weisa, and pure electric vehicles). It is expected that guangben / Guangfeng may have stronger sales and single vehicle profit recovery prospects in the stage of chip shortage improvement. 3) At present, gac-e'an has implemented equity incentive and the introduction of war investment, and is optimistic about the orderly promotion prospect of mixed reform + spin off listing of gac-e'an.
Maintain the "buy" rating of H shares and the "overweight" rating of a shares: in view of the drag effect of chip shortage and rising raw material prices, we reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2022e / 2023e by 1% / 7% to RMB 9.77 billion / 12.03 billion, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2024e will be about RMB 15.04 billion. We are optimistic about the sales volume and profit elasticity of guangben / Guangfeng in the improvement stage of chip shortage, the stabilization and improvement of GAC motor and the development prospect of GAC e'an, and maintain the "buy" rating of H shares and the "overweight" rating of a shares.
Risk tip: the chip shortage is not alleviated as expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The promotion of gac-e'an mixed reform was not as expected; The range of independent loss reduction is less than expected; The improvement of Japanese sales and performance is less than expected; Guangfeike / GAC Mitsubishi profit drag; Repeated outbreaks; Market and financial risks.
