\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Key investment points
Event: under the reference standard, the company achieved a revenue of 13.119 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 19.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 1.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, up from – 07 million yuan in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 117 million yuan, up from – 19 million yuan in the same period last year.
The epidemic repeatedly affected Q4 sales, and the high-end promoted the average price. In 2021q4, the company achieved beer revenue of 1.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24%; Beer sales reached 372600 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of – 2.08%, which was significantly slower than the growth rate of 18.29% in the first three quarters, mainly affected by the repeated Q4 epidemic; In the fourth quarter, the revenue per ton of wine increased by 4.41% year-on-year to 4997 yuan / kiloliter, which continued to benefit from high-end, and the company started price raising measures in the second half of last year to alleviate the rising pressure of raw materials. In terms of grades, the high-end, mainstream and economic revenue of 2021q4 company reached 717 million yuan, 1010 million yuan and 134 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, – 0.27% and 11.17% respectively; Compared with the same period last year, the company’s revenue in the northwest and the South regions increased by -12.7 billion and -12.4 billion respectively, and that in the middle and South regions increased by -4.24 billion and -1.24 billion respectively.
The increase of gross profit margin + the decrease of sales expense ratio promoted the release of Q4 profit elasticity. Since the company adjusted the accounting standard and adjusted the freight originally included in the sales expense into the cost in the 2021 annual report, we used the comparable standard before the adjustment for analysis. The cost per ton of wine of 2021q4 company decreased by 17.82% year-on-year, which mainly benefited from the savings brought by the company’s continuous promotion of organizational structure optimization projects and operation cost management projects, the increase of superposition average price, and the gross profit margin of comparable caliber in the fourth quarter increased by 10.31 PCT to 59.73% year-on-year. 2021q4 company’s sales (comparable caliber), management, R & D and financial expense rates were -4.47, -6.50, + 1.76 and + 0 PCT to 28.15%, 5.49%, 2.81% and – 0.24% respectively year-on-year. The decrease in the sales expense rate is mainly due to the strong and repeated epidemic in the fourth quarter and the pressure on the overall sales of the industry. The company appropriately reduces the investment of expenses. The decrease in management expense rate is mainly due to the provision of more asset restructuring expenses in 2020q4. On the whole, the net profit margin of 2021q4 company after deduction of non parent company increased by 7.04 PCT year-on-year.
Profit forecast: the impact of the epidemic on the company’s sales volume is short-term. Benefiting from the continuous big city strategy, the company’s sales volume is expected to maintain a growth trend in the medium term, and still has the logic of growth when the overall production and sales volume of the industry is stable. At the same time, the company has achieved remarkable high-end results. Although the short-term night show and other channels are affected by the epidemic, Wusu has grown into a large single product of nearly one million tons. At the same time, the company has many potential high-end single products such as 1664 and summer fun, and the high-end results are expected. According to the company’s annual report, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 15.790 billion yuan, 18.175 billion yuan and 20.444 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.403 billion yuan, 1.766 billion yuan and 2.165 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast value from 2022 to 2023 is 1.442 billion yuan and 1.742 billion yuan), and the EPS will be 290, 3.65 and 4.47 yuan respectively, corresponding to 39 times, 31 times and 25 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: repeated global epidemics and slowdown of global economic growth; Food safety risks; Decline in sales due to irresistible factors; The deterioration of market competition has brought unexpected promotional activities
