\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 156 Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) )
Event overview:
The company released its 2021 annual report: in that year, it achieved a revenue of 15.8 billion yuan, yoy + 47%, which was consistent with the amount of performance express, with a net profit attributable to the parent of 957 million yuan and yoy + 183%, deducting 796 million yuan of non attributable net profit, yoy + 284%. Both profit indicators were slightly higher than the value of performance express. It is estimated that the revenue of 21q4 company is 4.6 billion yuan, yoy + 38%, QoQ + 12%, net profit attributable to parent company is 250 million yuan, yoy + 231%, qoq-16%, and net profit not attributable to parent company is 160 million yuan, yoy + 191%, qoq-39%.
The profits of Chongchuan Chaowei factory increased strongly, and the losses of Nantong Hefei factory turned around
1) main profits contributed by Chongchuan & Chaowei factory: in 2021, the company's Chongchuan factory's revenue increased by 60% to 7.1 billion yuan, and the net profit reached 600 million yuan. The total revenue of Chaowei Suzhou & Penang was 8.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with a total profit of 351 million yuan. Chongchuan and Chaowei factories contributed most of the company's profits. 2) Nantong & Hefei factory Turnaround: in the same year, Nantong Tongfu and Hefei Tongfu realized revenue of 1.4 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 161% and 113% respectively, and realized net profits of 83.62 million yuan and 74.46 million yuan respectively. 3) Progress of new products: the miniaturized QFN products of Chongchuan factory have entered mass production, and 532 new vehicle products have been imported, with a year-on-year increase of 200%. Hefei Tongfu high-density new products have achieved mass production. The contribution of 7Nm product revenue of Chaowei factory has reached 80% in the whole year, and 5nm products have been successfully imported, and mass production is planned for 22 years.
Amd22 is expected to increase rapidly and the capacity of high-quality customers will continue to expand
The company adopts the mode of "joint venture + cooperation" with AMD, and nearly 50% of its revenue will come from AMD in 2020. AMD's latest financial report exceeded expectations. Its 21q4 achieved a revenue of $4.8 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $4.5 billion. Its 22 year revenue guideline is $21.5 billion, yoy + 31%, which is expected to continue the rapid momentum in 2021. The company previously said on the interactive platform that the company undertakes 80% of AMD sealing and testing business, and the rapid growth of amd22 is expected to drive the high growth of the company's overall revenue. On the one hand, the company has further improved the performance of domestic storage companies, such as the growth rate of large customers, and further improved the performance of GSK in other areas.
Equity incentive is superimposed on raised investment projects to lay the cornerstone of long-term development
21m9 issued a fixed increase announcement and plans to raise 5.5 billion yuan for the expansion of packaging capacity in the fields of memory chips, HPC and 5g - the scheme was approved by the CSRC in 22m1. The construction period of the five projects involved in the fixed increase is 2-3 years. After completion, the new after tax profit is about 440 million yuan, accounting for 47% of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years. In the medium and long term, the implementation of the project is expected to enhance the company's production capacity in potential fields such as storage, HPC and 5g, and "share the same frequency" with the growth rhythm of high-quality key customers in various downstream fields, opening up long-term growth space under the resonance of multiple key customers. In addition, 22m3 company issued an equity incentive announcement and plans to grant 11.2 million stock options to senior executives and core technical / business personnel, which is conducive to stimulating the enthusiasm of employees and demonstrating the company's confidence in future development.
Investment advice
Combined with the judgment of the prosperity of the sealed test industry in 22 years, we adjusted the prediction of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 to RMB 1.22/15.0/1.76 billion (the original prediction was RMB 1.24/1.59 billion in 22-23 years), and the corresponding PE was 18 / 15 / 13 times respectively. The company's key customers are expected to grow rapidly in 22 years. The expansion of raised investment capacity will help the company grasp the downstream potential areas. We maintain the "buy" rating for the company.
Risk tips
The industry boom was lower than expected, the performance growth of key customers was lower than expected, and the raised investment projects were lower than expected.
