\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
Event overview: the company released its annual report for 21 years and achieved a revenue of 3.89 billion yuan / + 18.3% in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 560 million yuan / + 20.3%, and the non net profit deducted is 530 million yuan / + 16.7%, which is slightly higher than the net profit attributable to the parent company / non net profit deducted in the performance express. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, yoy + 20.6%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, yoy + 9.5%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, yoy + 20.6%, a net profit of 110 million yuan, yoy + 9.5%, and a net interest rate of 13.0%.
Revenue side:
1) sub products: the growth of moon cakes is steady, and the speed of quick-frozen Q4 is increased. ① The income of moon cake / quick freezing / Catering / other items in the 21st year was RMB 1.52/8.5/7.2/750 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% / 9.4% / 48.3% / 23.6% respectively. The catering growth was driven by the consolidation of taotaoju in the second half of the year. Taotaoju's annual performance in the 21st year was RMB 15.82 million and the performance in the post acquisition stage was RMB 6.33 million (the provision for goodwill impairment in the current period was RMB 18.52 million); 21q4 moon cake / quick freezing / Catering / other income increased by 22.6% / 21.5% / 28.7% / 10.1% respectively year-on-year. Supported by the superposition and expansion of production disturbed by the epidemic situation, 21q4 moon cake / quick freezing gradually accelerated and the growth rate of catering decreased month on month. ② Food production and sales: the production / sales volume of moon cake products reached 156 / 15300 tons respectively in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.79% / + 4.40%; The production / sales volume of quick-frozen food reached 37200 / 35300 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.51% / + 8.49%. ③ Layout of catering stores: at the end of the year, there were 32 direct catering stores, including 21 / 2 / 8 / 1 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) / xingyuecheng / taotaoju / "Weilai" smart restaurant, and 22 "taotaoju" franchise stores authorized by a third party.
2) sub channels: in the same period of last year, under the low base of catering, the growth rate of direct sales is high, and the speed of distribution Q4 is slightly increased. In the 21st year, the revenue from direct selling / distribution channels reached RMB 1.69 billion / 2.16 billion respectively, yoy + 26.5% / 12.6%, and direct selling accounted for 44%; 21q4 direct selling / distribution achieved revenue of 350 / 510 million yuan, yoy + 40.9% / 10.4%. In the 21st year, the number of dealers inside / outside Guangdong Province / overseas increased by 58 / 112 / - 2 respectively, reaching 600 / 395 / 16, and the total number of dealers reached 1011, of which 22 were added in 21q4.
3) by Region: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.91/8.9/0.4 billion yuan in Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province / overseas respectively, yoy + 19.3% / 16.0% / 0.7%, accounting for 75% in Guangdong Province; 21q4 Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province achieved revenue of 670 / 190 / 04 million yuan respectively, yoy + 28.7% / 4.9% / - 66.7%.
Profit side: ① the gross profit margin of main business decreased by 1.5pct to 37.2% in 21 years, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of catering revenue with low gross profit margin and the decline in the gross profit margin of moon cakes. The gross profit margins of moon cakes / quick freezing / Catering were 56.5% / 36.2% / 9.4%, yoy-1.9pct / + 0.7pct / + 4.0pct respectively; The gross profit margin of direct selling / distribution is 30.6% / 42.4%, yoy-1.7 / - 0.9pct respectively. ② The ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses in 21 years is 9.3% / 9.7% / 2.0% / - 0.6%, yoy + 0.1 / - 0.9 / - 0.4 / - 0.1pct respectively; 21q4 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 11.4% / 10.6% / 2.4% / - 0.7% respectively, with a slight increase month on month. ③ In 21q1-4, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 7.1% / - 1.8% / 22.8% / 13.0% respectively. The growth of Q3 was driven by the recovery of catering and the consolidation of taotaoju; Q4 affected by the epidemic disturbance, the performance growth rate is weaker than the revenue. The expansion of production capacity and channels has been continuously promoted: (1) in terms of production capacity - 1) the equipment of Meizhou base has been in place, and the phase I of Meizhou base has entered trial production as planned in the first half of 21 years; 2) the demonstration of the planned quick-frozen food production project of phase II of Xiangtan base has been completed and the construction work is in progress. (2) Channels - 1) offline: increase the construction of supermarkets and improve dealer channels; 2) Online: e-commerce aims at markets outside the province and opens up sales through the optimal combination of multiple e-commerce platforms.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be RMB 670 / 803 / 939 million, yoy + 20.20% / 19.75% / 16.93%. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 22 / 23 years, which are 18.7/15.6/13.4x respectively. Optimistic about the company's performance elasticity after the short-term epidemic and the steady development of moon cake business and the room for acceleration of quick-frozen business under the background of medium and long-term production expansion, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic continues to repeat, the growth of food sales is less than expected, and the recovery of catering is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies risks
