\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event:
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the annual report for 2021: during the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 75.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.82%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 7.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.95%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non profits was 5.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.33%.
Key investment points:
Q4’s profitability improved significantly. In Q4 of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 20.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.77% and a month on month increase of – 3.72%; The net profit of shareholders of listed companies was 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.76% and a month on month increase of + 116.58%, of which the investment income contributed 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.1% and a month on month increase of + 98.2%. Profitability also improved, with a gross profit margin of 10.27%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.83pct and a month on month increase of + 2.38pct; The net interest rate was 10.51%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.57pct and a month on month increase of + 6.01pct.
The sales volume of independent new energy vehicles increased by 77.35% year-on-year. In 2021, the company sold 2141700 passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of + 4.97%; Among them, the annual sales volume of energy-saving vehicles (HEV) was 298800, a year-on-year increase of + 43.63%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 142900, a year-on-year increase of + 77.35%. Gac-e’an launched three new products, aiony, aionsplus and aionvplus, and further improved the product matrix in the core market of new energy vehicles with RMB 10 China Tianying Inc(000035) 000. The cumulative sales volume of e’an brand in the whole year was 120200, with a year-on-year increase of 101.80%. The sales volume of aions, aiony and aionv terminals are in the forefront of their pure electricity market segments, and it is expected to continue to maintain good growth in 2022.
“Liangtian” performed steadily, and Guangfeng ASP increased by 11600 yuan. In 2021, GAC Honda sold more than 780000 vehicles and launched many models such as accord, style and Lingpai. The brand ASP reached 147100 yuan, roughly the same as that in 2020. GAC Toyota sold 828000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 8.23%, mainly due to the launch of high-priced models such as Camry, Highlander and Saina, and the brand ASP reached 156400 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11600 yuan; Among them, Saina, the first MPV model, entered the price range of 400000 yuan luxury brand; Camry sold more than 210000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 17.08%. The terminal sales volume ranked first in the medium and high-end car segment.
The expansion project of new energy vehicles is gradually implemented, and the production capacity will increase by 300000 in 2022. The second phase of the company’s independent brand new energy vehicle capacity expansion project (100000 vehicles / year) has been completed and put into operation in February 2022. In addition, the second phase of GAC Toyota New Energy Vehicle expansion project (200000 vehicles / year) and GAC Honda New Energy Vehicle expansion project (120000 vehicles / year) will be completed in 2022 and 2024 respectively, laying a solid capacity foundation for the rapid development of the company’s new energy vehicle business.
The profit forecast and investment rating are optimistic about the rapid growth of the company’s new energy vehicle business and the strength of the joint venture brand. It is expected that the company will realize the main business revenue of 9.8 billion, 11 billion and 12 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, 12% and 9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 960 million, RMB 1.12 billion and RMB 1.38 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, 17% and 24%. The corresponding EPS was RMB 0.92, RMB 1.08 and RMB 1.33 respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price was 12, 10 and 8 times respectively. The valuation was reasonable and maintained the “buy” rating.
The risk suggests that the sales growth of independent new energy vehicles is less than expected; The growth of sales volume of joint venture brands was lower than expected; The price of upstream raw materials continues to rise; The impact of terminal price rise on sales exceeds expectations; The progress of capacity expansion was less than expected.
