\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 029 China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) )
The increase in revenue and the expansion of losses dragged down the performance of the whole year in the fourth quarter
In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 101644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.81% and a decrease of 34.14% compared with 19 years; The net loss attributable to the parent company was 12.103 billion yuan, an increase of 1.261 billion yuan over the previous year; The net loss of non parent company deduction was 12.630 billion yuan, an increase of 972 million yuan over the previous year. Among them, the loss in the fourth quarter was 5.984 billion yuan, accounting for 49.44% of the annual loss, which was mainly affected by the spread of the 21q4 national epidemic.
The passenger occupancy rate is the same as that in 20 years, and the Chinese market has recovered
The company’s overall performance in terms of available seat kilometers, revenue passenger kilometers and seat rate in 21 years is basically the same as that in 20 years, but there are obvious regional differences, and the Chinese market has recovered. During the period, the ask of the company decreased by 0.37% compared with 20 years and 37.82% compared with 19 years. Among them, the ask of China line increased by 5.93% year-on-year and decreased by 12.66% compared with 19 years. The ask of international line and regional line decreased by 60.36% and 15.96% respectively year-on-year. RPK decreased by 0.66% year-on-year, of which the Chinese line increased by 5.77% year-on-year, and the international line and regional line decreased by 69.00% and 36.24% year-on-year respectively. The comprehensive seating rate of the company in the 21st year was 71.25%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points compared with that in the 20th year and 11.56 percentage points compared with that in the 19th year.
The revenue level of customers and goods increased year-on-year
Passenger transport: the revenue per passenger kilometer was 0.49 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.52%, including 0.46 yuan for China, an increase of 12.20%, 1.61 yuan for international routes, a year-on-year significant increase of 67.71%, and 1.46 yuan for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan routes, a year-on-year increase of 39.05%. Freight: in 2021, the revenue per ton kilometer of freight charged increased, with an average of 2.58 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.66%, Chinese routes decreased by 13.24%, international routes increased by 14.57%, and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan routes increased by 53.86%. The overall cargo and mail revenue was 19.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.58%.
Fuel costs rose sharply, but the overall cost control was good, and the impairment of assets decreased significantly
The company’s aviation fuel cost in 2021 was 25.505 billion yuan, a significant increase of 35.69% year-on-year. The operating cost was 104229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.83%, basically equivalent to the growth rate of revenue, and the gross profit margin remained stable.
The company has better cost control in aircraft maintenance, food supply and other aspects, and the fuel deduction cost is 78.724 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.44%, less than the growth rate of revenue. The cost per seat kilometer was 0.487 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.24%, and the cost of fuel deduction per seat kilometer was 0.368 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%. The impairment of the company’s fixed assets during the period was 994 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.69%, mainly because the company has accrued a large number of aircraft asset impairment in 20 years, and the impairment pressure during the period is small.
It is expected to return to profitability from 2023
As the largest airline company in China’s fleet, the company has obvious advantages in route network and great profit elasticity. Under the background of the mismatch between supply and demand in the civil aviation industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is expected that the passenger occupancy rate will increase and the revenue level of the airline company will improve. However, affected by the instability of the global epidemic situation and the sharp rise in oil prices, we lowered the previous forecast of the company’s net profit of RMB 1.09/7.01 billion in 22-23 years, and it is expected that the company will still be difficult to make a profit in 2022. We expect that in 2023, international routes are expected to begin to be liberalized, and the company will benefit from the double dividend of the growth of international line revenue and the continuous improvement of China line revenue. It is estimated that the net profit of 22-24 years will be -6.809/2.03/5.421 billion yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of the epidemic in various places is less than expected, the oil price rises sharply, the RMB depreciates sharply, China’s economic growth is less than expected, and the depreciation of aircraft assets is serious.
