\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Performance review
The company released its annual report on April 1, with a revenue of 13.119 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 19.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reference caliber of + 38.8%; Deduction of non net profit was 1.143 billion yuan, and the reference caliber was + 76.1% year-on-year. 21q4 revenue was 1.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent is 122 million yuan, and the loss of 20q4 for reference is 07 million yuan; Deduct 117 million yuan of non net profit and 19 million yuan of loss in 20q4 for reference, and the performance is in line with expectations.
Business analysis
Wusu achieved high growth outside Xinjiang, and South and East China performed brilliantly. In the 21st year, the sales volume of beer was 2.7894 million kiloliters, with a volume increase of 15% and a price increase of 5%. Q4 volume decreased by 2% and price increased by 4%. In terms of products, the high-end / mainstream / economic sales volume in 21 years was 66.2/161.4513000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 43.5% / + 10.8% / + 10.6%, the ton price was + 2.1% / + 0.2% / + 6.2%, and the revenue was + 40.5% / + 10.6% / + 4.1% year-on-year. In 21 years, the proportion of high-end sales increased from 4pct to 24% and the proportion of revenue increased from 6pct to 36%, and the product structure was optimized. It is estimated that 830000 tons of Wusu (year-on-year + 34%), with a growth rate of about 10% in Xinjiang; Wusu outside Xinjiang is close to 500000 tons (about + 50% year-on-year). In 1664, more than 50000 tons (year-on-year + 36%), thousands of tons in summer, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of heavy beer (double-digit increase), more than 500000 tons in Lebao (more than + 10% year-on-year), Xixia and Shancheng are growing, and Dali is lagging behind due to the impact of the epidemic. In terms of subregions, in the 21st year, the revenue of Northwest / central / southern region was + 25.2% / + 13.6% / + 28.0% year-on-year, and the ton price was + 4% + 1% / + 13% year-on-year. South China and East China took the lead in growth. Quarter by quarter, Q4 high-end / mainstream / economic income was + 4.4% / – 0.3% / + 11.2% year-on-year, and Wusu was basically the same; The revenue of Northwest / central / Southern District was – 12.3% / – 6.9% / + 25.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the high base last year, the epidemic affected demand, and the superposition of Q4 organizational structure adjustment.
Cost control is better than peers, reducing fees and enhancing profitability. The non net profit margin deducted in 21 years was + 2.8pct year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin was + 3.3pct year-on-year (beer was + 2.5pct year-on-year), and the cost per ton of beer was – 0.1% year-on-year. Our judgment is that the company’s supply chain management and price locking ability are leading. The Q3 Jiangsu factory was put into operation to save freight, and the aluminum materials with large increase accounted for only 7% of the cost per ton (aluminum cans 9%), and the increase in volume will also amortize the fixed cost. The year-on-year sales rate of 21 years was -1.3pct, mainly due to the release of epidemic control expenses; The management rate was -2.3pct year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease in intermediary service fees. After reducing the contract performance cost, the gross profit margin of 21q4 was + 10.3pct year-on-year, the overall ton cost was – 17.8% year-on-year, and the sales / management rate was – 4.5 / – 6.5pct year-on-year.
Weaken the short-term epidemic situation and cost disturbance, and pay attention to the empowerment of Wusu channel in the medium and long term. From January to February, the volume increased by double digits (faster than peers), and some regions were dragged down by the epidemic in March. On the cost side, the price lock of barley in 22 years has been basically completed, and the price lock of packaging materials has not been completed for the whole year. We judge that the cost pressure per ton in 22 years is weaker than the average, and we do not rule out the subsequent price increase and fee control (the existing price increase has contributed 2-3% to ASP). In the medium and long term, the company’s product and brand marketing ability is leading, the potential energy of Wusu continues, the channel edge is better, and the big city plan is advancing steadily (15 new big cities in 22 years). After the completion of Bu adjustment, many places have started the combination of Lebao, 1664, Chongqing brand and Wusu, waiting for the emergence of Wusu channel empowerment.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the growth rate of revenue in 22-24 years will be 17% / 15% / 13%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will be 21% / 27% / 18%, the EPS will be 2.92/3.71/4.38 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 38 / 30 / 26x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of rapid rise of raw materials and food safety problems.
