\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 271 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) )
High quality track + excellent company achievements continued to grow
At present, the growth rate of the waterproof industry has slowed down and entered a mature period, but with the stricter supervision and the improvement of standards, it has gradually become standardized. Due to the strong functionality and concealed engineering attribute of the waterproof industry, brand power has become an important consideration for downstream selection. The market space is about 200 billion and the track is of high quality. At the same time, the company itself has excellent governance and full wolf nature, which is mainly reflected in two points: first, the management has strong strategic decision-making ability and can make timely correction and adjustment while grasping major opportunities in the industry; second, the internal and external incentives of the enterprise are sufficient, and the wolf nature of executives, employees and external dealers is ten. The fourth round of equity incentive targets 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 deduct non net profit, with an annual increase of no less than 25%. We believe that the excellent achievements of the company itself have led to the continuous growth of fundamentals.
Front desk accumulation: system optimization accelerates the increase of market share at B and C ends
Through years of operation, the company has established great advantages in the b-end channel, especially in the core city. Since 2020, the reform of the integrated company aims to improve the penetration rate of non real estate projects in the non core market through channel sinking, solve the problem of insufficient reporting rate of non real estate projects in the sinking market in the past, and achieve a targeted goal; At the same time, the company’s C-end has cultivated the stickiness of foremen and other professional groups through the layout of “Yuhong College” and “honggehui” for a long time, operated systematically for many years, grasped the flow entrance of C-end, and its development has accelerated in recent years. On the whole, after 2016, with the slowdown of industry growth and continuous standardization, the market share of the company continued to increase, and the accumulated advantages entered the harvest period. At present, the market share of the company is less than 15%, and there is much room for improvement.
Middle stage support: the production side has significant advantages, and digital enables enterprise operation
The company has significant capacity and scale advantages in waterproof coiled materials and waterproof coatings. It has more than 36 production, R & D and logistics bases nationwide, which can cover the main markets in the country without being limited by the transportation radius. At the same time, it actively carries out the integrated layout of the industrial chain. As an industry leader, the company’s digital construction is also ahead of the industry. At present, it has entered the climax of comprehensive digital construction, providing support for the company to improve business efficiency and break through capacity boundaries.
Core competence replication and multi category expansion
Based on the continuous growth of the main waterproof industry, the company has more and more category layout in recent years. With the strong advantages of Yuhong at the b-end, coatings, mortar powder, etc. grow rapidly, far faster than the main waterproof industry, which is expected to drive the company’s continuous growth and become a platform enterprise.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company has established all-round leading advantages. With the continuous standardization of the industry, the market share will continue to increase. With the sinking of channels, the development of C-end and the expansion of categories, the company will continue to move forward to a platform enterprise of chemical building materials. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 31.8/39.9/49.2 billion yuan, with growth rates of 46.76% / 25.01% / 23.31% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.185/52.61/6.582 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23.50% / 25.71% / 25.10% respectively, and PE will be 27 / 22 / 17 times. Give 27xpe in 2022, corresponding to the market value of 142 billion yuan, the target price of 56.38 yuan, 26% more space than the current price, cover it for the first time, and give a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations, the demand for real estate and infrastructure fell short of expectations, and the growth of new categories fell short of expectations
