\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 21 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) )
Key investment points
The price of three electricity + raw materials in the consolidated statement rose, and the company's annual performance was under pressure
1) in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 67.563 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 973 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 38.40%. Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 17.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 92.00%. 2) The company consolidated the three quarterly reports of 2021 with the statement of three power holdings. If excluding three power holdings, the company achieved an operating revenue of 62.449 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 29.05%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 28.58%. The company's performance is greatly affected by the consolidated statement III. in 2021, the impact of Sandian holdings on the net profit attributable to the parent company at the end of the consolidated statement was 155 million yuan. 3) In 2021, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 19.70%, down 4.34pct year-on-year; Among them, Q4 single quarter comprehensive gross profit margin was 15.47%, down 9.56pct year-on-year. Affected by the price of raw materials, the company's profitability is under pressure. We expect the company's performance to bear the pressure of raw material prices.
Hisense Hitachi's central air business is growing rapidly and continues to see many online leading enterprises
1) in 2021, Hisense Hitachi achieved revenue of 18.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.11%. According to the industry online data, the market share of Hisense Hitachi central air conditioning shipments in 2021 was 11.54%. Among them, the company is the leader in the multi online segment. In 2021, Hisense Hitachi's multi online shipment share was 18.50%, leading Daikin and Gree by 2.57pct and 3.07pct respectively. 2) Central air conditioning is superior to split air conditioning in terms of energy efficiency and use effect. We believe that under the background of consumption upgrading and fine decoration penetration, the penetration rate of central air conditioning is expected to be further improved. The domestic market scale of central air conditioning in 2021 is 112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27%. Multi online central air is the leading model of central air conditioning, which saves more external space and makes more reasonable refrigerant distribution. In 2021, multi online domestic and foreign sales accounted for 58.48%. We continue to be optimistic about central air conditioning, especially the growth of multi online.
Consolidated statement of Sandian holdings dragged down the annual performance and expected the loss of Sandian to narrow in 22 years
1) according to the company's announcement, in 2021, the company's consolidated third power holding income was 5.114 billion yuan and the net loss was 155 million yuan (the time scale is April June of 21, and the consolidated statement end). 2) According to the announcement of Sandian holdings, from April to December of 21 years, Sandian holdings realized an income of 119.6 billion yen (equivalent to 6.2 billion yuan) and an operating loss of 12.5 billion yen (equivalent to 680 million yuan). 3) The company outputs management and organizational culture to Sandian holdings. At the same time, the company empowers Sandian to realize the coordination of customer resources and supply chain. The loss of Sandian in 22 years is expected to narrow.
The brand continued to go to sea, and the proportion of export sales increased significantly
1) in 2021, the company achieved overseas revenue of 23.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.21%; In 2021, the company's export sales accounted for 38.12% of its main business, with a year-on-year increase of 4.73 PCT. The company firmly pursues the strategy of brand going to sea. 2) The company strengthens production and marketing coordination and improves the competitiveness of overseas products. Among them, the export scale of refrigerator products reached a new high. According to the industry online data, the company exported 5.1590 and 7.657 million air conditioners and refrigerators respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.10% and + 10.02%. 3) We believe that the company's sea going strategy will open up new growth space for the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the company's traditional ice washing and household air conditioning business, the brand continues to go to sea; In terms of central air conditioning, considering that Hisense Hitachi under the company is the leader of the central air conditioning industry, its market position is stable. We expect the company's revenue to be 78.847/86.839/94.677 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a corresponding growth rate of 16.70% / 10.14% / 9.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.123/14.07/1.658 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of 15.47% / 25.33% / 17.77%, corresponding to 13 / 11 / 9 times of the current share price PE respectively. We give the company a 22-year 15xpe, corresponding to the target share price of 12.30 yuan, and give a "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The demand is less than expected; Intensified market competition
