\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 919 Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 333694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.85%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 89.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 799.52%. In addition, the company issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in the first quarter, which is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.6%.
After 21 years, he handed over a brilliant answer sheet and fully demonstrated the profitability elasticity
During the reporting period, the company's overall operating performance, container shipping business revenue and freight volume reached a record high. The company achieved an EBIT of 131.5 billion yuan, of which the EBIT of container shipping business reached 127.7 billion yuan, mainly due to the sharp rise in industry freight rates. In 2021, the average value of China's export container freight rate composite index was 261554 points, a year-on-year increase of 165.69%. It is worth noting that the net operating cash flow of the company in 21 years was 170948 billion yuan, indicating that the industry is in a high boom stage and the owner has strong bargaining power.
The dividend ability was repaired and the asset quality was improved
During the year, the company continuously optimized its financial structure and created conditions for the realization of annual cash dividends. The distributable profit of the parent company increased from -22.47 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 27.78 billion yuan at the end of 21. Considering the sustainable development of the company and the return of shareholders, the total cash dividend was 13.932 billion yuan, which exceeded 50% of the company's distributable profit.
22. The pulling effect of freight rate on profit is gradually reflected
In the first quarter, when China was plagued by the epidemic, the company still achieved considerable pre growth. We believe that one of the main reasons behind this is that the European long-term association has significantly boosted the company's performance. Although the industry freight rate is still in a downward trend in the near future, we expect that the price of the US long-term association is still expected to increase significantly compared with that in 21 years, which will escort the company's performance in 2022.
Investment suggestions:
Although the freight rate has dropped recently due to the Chinese epidemic and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to curb demand, the centralized transportation industry as a whole is still in a high boom range. Considering that the industry has changed from weak to prosperous from Q2 in the past, and the impact of the Chinese epidemic will gradually dissipate, we believe that the freight rate of the industry is expected to increase with the recovery of cargo volume. In the context of the substantial increase in the price of the long-term association, we believe that the company's performance in the year is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth under the high base, and maintain the 22-year profit forecast of 131769 billion yuan unchanged. However, considering that the Fed's interest rate hike may suppress the demand, we lowered the 23-year profit forecast from 98.822 billion yuan to 69.722 billion yuan, and introduced the 2024 profit forecast of 30.707 billion yuan, corresponding to the 22-24-year PE valuation of 207, 3.92 and 8.89x, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the global economy has fallen more than expected, safety accidents, and fuel prices have risen more than expected. The forecast data of the first quarterly report is only preliminary accounting data
