\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company achieved a revenue of 106190 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 11.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 31.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.06%.
The performance and profitability grew steadily, benefiting from the rise of gross profit margin and the decline of sales expense rate. The annual performance growth was slightly higher than expected. At the same time, the proportion of direct sales revenue of the company further increased, accounting for 22.66% in 2021, an increase of 8.69pct year-on-year compared with 2020, and the direct sales revenue increased by 81.49% year-on-year. In addition, the gross profit margin of the company maintained growth. In 2021, the gross profit margin of alcohol was 91.62%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.14pct, of which the gross profit margin of Maotai was 94.03%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04pct. In 2021, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.1pct to 2.5%. Benefiting from the increase of gross profit margin and the decrease of sales expense ratio, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 47.92%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.27pct.
The capacity expansion was carried out in an orderly manner, and the capacity expansion of a series of wines continued. The company produced 84700 tons of base liquor in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 12.72%; Among them, 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 12.42%. In the context of short supply, the company will actively expand the production capacity of base liquor, especially the production capacity of series liquor in 2021: the design production capacity of Maotai base liquor will be increased by 182.5 tons, and the technical transformation project of 30000 tons Maotai flavor series liquor will be promoted in an orderly manner; The design capacity of the new series of wine base liquor is 6400 tons. From the perspective of cash paid for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets, RMB 3.409 billion was paid in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 63.12%, mainly due to the increase of land transfer fees compared with the previous period. The company plans to complete the capital construction investment of 6.969 billion yuan in 2021 and greatly increase the capital construction investment.
Maotai + Series liquor two wheel drive, 1935 improved the price belt and impacted the competitive products at the same time. In 2021, the sales volume of the company’s series of liquor was 30200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.46%. The sales revenue of series liquor was 12.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%. At the same time, the company’s Maotai flavor series liquor advertising and expansion expenses increased, and the number of Maotai flavor series liquor dealers increased significantly. The company continued to focus on promoting the development of Maotai flavor series liquor. In the future, the company plans to maintain 1935 yuan of Maotai liquor, which will further boost the market share of the company’s competitive products and drive the market share of 1935 yuan of Maotai liquor. The company has made great efforts to promote the development of series of wines to achieve phased success, become an important driving force for future revenue growth, expand brand promotion and cultivation of target consumers, further drive the popularity of soy sauce and improve channel capacity.
The marketing reform continues to advance, and the long-term value is expected to stabilize and gradually improve. Since Ding Xiongjun, the new chairman of Maotai, took office in September 2021, the reform of marketing system has been continuously promoted. At the 2022 market work conference, based on the changes of the market environment facing the “five new” of new trends, new groups, new scenes, new retail and new products, the “five in one marketing method” was proposed to build and improve the digital marketing platform and speed up the completion of the new retail weakness. Restarting the e-commerce marketing platform is expected to further improve and optimize the company’s marketing structure, strengthen channel management and control ability, and firmly grasp the initiative of volume and price. The recent decline in the approval price is mainly due to the disturbance of the epidemic situation in the first tier cities and I Maotai’s launch. In the future, the situation of the epidemic will gradually ease. The high-end Baijiu just needs the favorable factors such as the warm up of the consumption scene. Under the drive of volume and price rise, the long-term value of Moutai is expected to stabilize and gradually improve.
Profit forecast: we expect the company’s revenue of RMB 126.98/146027/170464 billion in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 16% / 15% / 16.74%, net profit of RMB 62.314727.0884826/billion, with a year-on-year increase of 18.78% / 16.68% / 16.67%, and EPS of RMB 49.61/57.88/67.53/share.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, food safety risks, and repeated consumption of Baijiu.
