\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 828 Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) )
Performance summary: the company released the annual report of 2021, and achieved a revenue of 15.51 billion yuan (+ 9%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.05 billion yuan (+ 18.3%); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.66 billion yuan (+ 42.6%). Among them, Q4 company achieved an operating revenue of 4.16 billion yuan (- 11.7%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 17.5 million yuan, deducting 190 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company. The company achieved steady growth in annual revenue and operating performance in 2021.
Profitability continues to improve, and expense control needs to be strengthened. In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 61.7% (+ 0.2pp), which was mainly due to the group’s active category adjustment and the significant increase in the revenue of rental shopping malls. Among them, in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s self operated shopping mall was 77.1% (+ 0.5pp), the gross profit margin of the entrusted shopping mall was 52.4% (- 7.4pp), the gross profit margin of construction and design was 27.3% (- 5.4pp), and the gross profit margin of home decoration services and commodity sales was 20.5% (- 1.4pp). In terms of expense rate, the overall expense rate of the company in 2021 was 42.5% (+ 1.2pp). The company’s asset liability ratio decreased from 1.9% to 1.3% with the “1pp + 5pp” strategy of optimizing the company’s asset structure, and the company’s asset liability ratio decreased from 1.9% to 1.4%, with the company’s “effective 1pp + 1pp + 1pp” ratio of 1.57%. Overall, the net interest rate of the company was 13.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 1pp, and the deduction of non net interest rate was 10.7% (+ 2.5pp).
Adjust and optimize the business strategy to realize the channel sinking in the asset light mode. By product, in 2021, the company’s self operated / leased shopping malls achieved a revenue of 8.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, accounting for 52.2% of the revenue, and the rental rates of self operated and entrusted shopping malls increased by + 2PP and + 0.7pp respectively. The entrusted shopping mall achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, mainly due to the decrease in the number of engineering project consulting and commercial consulting projects. The revenue from construction and design was 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, which was mainly due to the special accounting of engineering projects and the need to recognize the revenue according to the completion progress, so part of the revenue in 2021 was carried forward to 2022; The sales revenue of home decoration services and commodities was 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14%, mainly due to the increase of home decoration projects and the accelerated progress of the project. By the end of the 21st century, 327 contracted projects in the entrusted shopping malls prepared by the company had obtained land use rights / plots, and the number of entrusted shopping malls in the preparation of third tier and below cities accounted for more than 70%. The company will sink rapidly in the light asset operation mode in the future.
The new retail business was carried out in depth, and the digital reform achieved initial results. In 2021, the company has 95 self operated shopping malls, 278 entrusted shopping malls, 10 strategic cooperation shopping malls and 69 franchised home building materials projects, including 485 home building materials stores / industrial streets, with a total business area of 22.304 million square meters. Relying on the strong advantages of stores, the company has actively carried out home decoration business and continued to promote the new retail model, with initial results. In 2021, the company’s retail sales ranked first in China’s home decoration and furniture retail industry, accounting for 17.5%, ranking in the leading position in the industry. In addition, the company continues to promote the upgrading of digital platform and create a personalized and customized brand. On the basis of consolidating the existing business, the company continues to explore more new retail channels and develop chain operation with the help of the advantages of large stores, so as to strengthen the customer acquisition ability of system marketing and realize global customer acquisition and global marketing. In the future, the company will continue to promote digital reform and reach customer groups through accurate consumption positioning, so as to optimize product structure and improve efficiency.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.59 yuan, 0.7 yuan and 0.82 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 14 times, 12 times and 10 times respectively. As the leader of offline home stores, the company has strong flow liquidity and multi business forms. Under the mode of “light assets and heavy operation”, the operating efficiency is expected to continue to improve. Give the company a valuation of 18 times in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 10.6 yuan, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the risk that household consumption is less than expected due to the impact of real estate; The risk that the expansion store is not as expected; The risk that the new retail transformation is less than expected.
