\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
Event: on April 1, 2022, the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be about 1609.5 million yuan, an increase of about 415.79 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 34.83% year-on-year.
The simultaneous rise of volume and price drives the growth of 22q1 performance of the company. According to the announcement, the main reasons for the company’s profit growth in the first quarter of 2022 are as follows: first, during the reporting period, China’s coal market demand was strong, and the company’s commercial coal sales price increased compared with the same period. According to wind data, the average price of refined coal of Huaibei coke in 22q1 is 2200 yuan / ton, an increase of 750 yuan / ton or 52% compared with 21q1; Second, the company’s commercial coal sales increased slightly compared with the same period. According to the announcement, Xinhu coal mine under the company was officially put into operation in September 2021 and will contribute to the output increment in 2022.
Coal prices are expected to remain high, driving the release of the company’s performance. Since 2022, affected by the recovery of overseas epidemic and overseas geopolitics, the price of overseas coking coal has continued to rise, the price advantage has weakened, the supplement of imported coal has been lost, and the supply of China’s coking coal market may continue to be tight. In terms of thermal coal, the price center of the long-term association has increased from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton, an increase of 26%, which is expected to drive the price increase of the company’s thermal coal.
There is sufficient space for coal and chemical expansion. In terms of coal, according to the announcement of the company on February 19, 2022, Chengda mining, a subsidiary of the company, received the reply of the national development and Reform Commission on the approval of taohutu coal mine project in narinhe mining area, Inner Mongolia, and plans to build an 8 million T / a mine, which means that the equity capacity of the company is expected to increase by 4.19 million T / a (the company holds 51% equity of Chengda mining). In terms of chemical industry, the company’s comprehensive utilization of coke oven gas to methanol project (500000 T / a) will be completed and put into operation in June 2022. At the same time, the construction of comprehensive utilization of methanol project ( Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a ethanol) will be accelerated, and there is a large space for capacity expansion of chemical business.
Dividend yield has investment value. The company’s shareholder return plan for 20222024 shows that the company’s annual profit distributed in cash shall not be less than 30% of the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the consolidated statements of the current year. The proportion of cash dividends actually implemented by the company from 2019 to 2021 was 35.93%, 42.85% and 36.33% respectively, all higher than 30%. The dividend rate of the company in 2021 is 4.3% (calculated based on the stock price on April 1, 2022). Based on our prediction of the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.002 billion in 2022 and the cash dividend ratio of 30% and 36% (dividend ratio in 2021), the dividend rate of the company is 5.21% and 6.26% respectively.
Investment suggestion: according to the performance forecast and the current coal price situation, we have raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 7.002 billion yuan, 7.567 billion yuan and 8.156 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.82/3.05/3.29 respectively, and PE corresponding to the share price on April 1, 2022 of 6 times, 5 times and 5 times respectively. The company has relatively scarce growth in the current sector and is expected to obtain higher valuation, Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the coal price fell more than expected, the profit of the newly put into production capacity was less than expected, and the construction progress of the newly approved capacity was slower than expected.
