\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Investment logic
The certainty of new PV equipment + stock replacement is high, and the company, as the absolute leader in the field of series welding machine, will directly benefit: the new installed capacity of global PV has continued to exceed expectations in recent years, and the technology change speed of major links in the industry has significantly accelerated. As the main link of photovoltaic module equipment, series welding machine fully benefits from the demand for module capacity expansion and capacity replacement of ineffective equipment in stock caused by the high increase of new installed capacity. The company is the absolute leader of the series welding machine, and the market share is stable at about 70% all year round. We expect that the new + stock market space of the series welding machine from 2021 to 2023 will be 28 / 45 / 5.1 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding series welding machine orders of the company are expected to reach 2 / 32 / 3.6 billion yuan respectively. At the same time, the company developed the single crystal furnace business last year and further expanded its business scope.
The market space of lithium battery equipment is large, and the R & D layout is expected to be effective: lithium battery equipment is the business growth point actively cultivated by the company. It has broad market prospects thanks to the rapid increase of the penetration rate of global new energy vehicles and the development of new energy storage. Due to the high market share of lithium battery pack and battery pack in the early stage, the market share of lithium battery pack is lower than that of pack. In recent years, the company’s lithium battery equipment business profit has gradually improved, and obtained 130 million orders from honeycomb at the end of 2021, which was recognized by head customers. At the same time, the company has increased its R & D investment in high-speed laminating machine, which has a broad growth space in the future.
The new products of semiconductor equipment are progressing smoothly, which is expected to open a new growth curve for the company: the company’s self-developed semiconductor bonding machine was introduced into multiple companies for verification in 2021, obtained tens of millions of orders for semiconductor aluminum wire bonding machine at the end of the same year, and is expected to obtain large orders in 2022. At present, the localization rate of semiconductor bonding machines is low and basically depends on imports. According to China’s customs data, the import amount of China’s semiconductor bonding machines in 2021 was US $1.586 billion, and there is a huge space for domestic substitution. While successfully developing aluminum wire bonding machine, the company has set up a project to develop gold copper wire bonding machine to seek further breakthroughs in the field of semiconductor wire bonding machine.
Raise funds to increase the research and development of high-end intelligent equipment and further build a platform type special equipment enterprise: on June 18, 2021, the company issued a fixed increase plan and proposed a total capital increase of 550 million yuan. All the funds are intended to be used for the research and development of TOPCON battery equipment, semiconductor packaging and testing core equipment, lithium battery cell core process equipment, science and technology reserve funds and supplementary working capital, which is expected to further enhance the market competitiveness. Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 360 million yuan, 540 million yuan and 720 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 129.5%, 51.4% and 34.2%, corresponding to EPS of 3.61, 5.47 and 7.34 yuan, 50 times PE in 2022 and corresponding target price of 274 yuan. For the first time, give a “buy” rating. Risk statement
The penetration of new technologies is less than expected, the progress of R & D is less than expected, and there is a risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
