\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event overview: on April 3, 2022, the company released the production and sales data of March. The sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicles in March was 104900, with a year-on-year increase of + 157.0% / month on month increase of + 15.2%.
The demand for 22m3 plug-in mixing continued to be strong, with a strong year-on-year increase of + 615%. According to the data of the passenger Federation, we expect the passenger car sales in March to be - 12.7% year-on-year / month on month + 4.3%. In March, the company sold 104300 new energy passenger vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 346.2% / month on month increase of + 19.3%. In 22 years, the company sold 284700 new energy passenger vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 433.4%, significantly exceeding the market. When the terminal price is adjusted by 1-7k, the sales volume is still expected by the supermarket, reflecting the demand toughness under strong product strength. In terms of power, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 53700, with a year-on-year increase of + 229.2% / month on month increase of + 24.3%. The cumulative sales volume in 22 years was 143200, with a year-on-year increase of + 271.1%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles is 50700, with a year-on-year increase of + 615.2% / month on month increase of + 14.4%. The cumulative sales volume in 22 years is 141500, with a year-on-year increase of + 857.4%. The growth rate of pure electric and hybrid two wheel drive remains high. We expect that the demand for DM is expected to continue to be strong this year, and the sales volume of the company's new energy passenger vehicles is expected to sprint to 1.1 million. At present, the cumulative sales volume from January to March reaches the predicted annual sales volume of 25.9%, which is higher than our previous expectations. On April 3, the company announced that it would stop production of fuel vehicles (fuel vehicles accounted for 3.1% in February, with little impact on sales). It made every effort to attack the field of new energy, and the market share is expected to further increase.
The layout of dynasty + Ocean network models has accelerated and improved, and the strong product cycle has come. In March, the sales volume of dynasty series was 86400, a month on month increase of + 11.2%. Among them, the flagship model Han series sold 12400 vehicles in March, with a month on month increase of + 33.0%, leading the independent medium and high-end medium and large car market. On March 19, Han DM opened pre-sale, with pre-sale orders of more than 12000 vehicles in 10 hours, and the heat continued to rise; The Tang series SUV with a positioning of 20 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 yuan sold 9600 vehicles in March, and the new generation Tang DM was + 565.9% year-on-year; The sales volume of song / Qin / yuan Series in March was 267 / 2.48 / 12900, with a month on month ratio of + 9.0% / + 1.2% / + 43.9%. The sales volume of Yuan series exceeded 10000, and the listing of yuan plus EV further contributed to the increment. Dolphin sales exceeded 10000 in March, with a month on month increase of + 22.60%. Since its listing, the sales volume has continued to climb. On March 17, the destroyer 05, the first model of the warship series, went on the market and entered the hybrid market of 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 yuan. In 2022, seagull, seal, sea lion and other models are expected to be listed gradually, and the strong product cycle of the company has come.
The platform continues to be imported, and the company's long-term logic continues to be fulfilled. Relying on disruptive technologies such as blade battery, DM-I super hybrid and E platform 3.0, the company has ushered in the all-round development of technology, products and market. On the platform side, the company relies on the DM platform to create a number of hybrid models with high economy and strong power, casting the leading position in the field of hybrid, E3 0 platform has started a strong cycle of pure electric products, and the platform ability has been continuously verified. On the industrial side, the company's core component blade battery continues to be supplied to Changan / BAIC / FAW and other vehicle enterprises. According to the statistics of starting point lithium battery, the production capacity of Byd Company Limited(002594) battery is expected to reach 285 / 430gwh in 2022 / 2023, boosting the development of new energy market; The semiconductor company sets up the technical benchmark of the industry, builds a stable supply chain with batteries, and has the right to speak upstream. Under the power of parts expansion + multiple acceleration of vehicle strong product cycle, the company's long-term logic continues to be fulfilled, and the inflection point of secondary growth has come.
Investment suggestion: affected by the battery cost, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 78.83/165.73/22.295 billion yuan, corresponding to 87 / 41 / 31 times of the current share price PE respectively. The company has made full efforts in the hybrid and pure electric markets and maintained the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation of chip supply is less than expected, the recovery of passenger cars is less than expected, and the product landing is less than expected.
