\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 405 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) )
Occupy the "commanding height" of the era of smart cars, accumulate and make progress, and finally meet the inflection point. The company started from map navigation. Although it has significant advantages in many fields such as location big data, Internet of vehicles, automatic driving, vehicle chip and so on, the market still regards the company more as a traditional map provider and ignores the profound changes in its business space and business model of upgrading to a full stack service provider in the era of smart cars. We believe that under the huge wave of automobile intellectualization, the company has fully formed a five in one business layout of "map + vehicle networking + automatic driving + big data + chip", and occupied the "commanding height" of the era of intelligent automobile through the whole stack layout. The company's long-term high R & D investment finally ushered in a harvest inflection point: in 2021, the operating revenue was 3.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%, a new high since listing, the profit turned from loss to profit, the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022 turned from loss to profit again, and the performance inflection point was established.
"Three mountains overlapping mountains" establishes epic opportunities, and the closed loop of "compliance + map + algorithm + positioning" realizes the butterfly change of profit model. The "didi incident" drives data security into the era of supervision, and the construction of compliance platform is imminent. It is worth noting that the strong coupling between the compliance platform and the high-precision map will give birth to the intelligent "arms race" of automobile, and the three aspects will jointly accelerate the sinking of the rigid demand of the high-precision map. According to the characteristics of the existing "compliance + map", we judge that it may be carried out in the form of "data operation" in the future. According to the calculation, under the conditions of pessimism, neutrality and optimism, the corresponding incremental space may reach 7.9 billion yuan / year, 10.5 billion yuan / year and 13.1 billion yuan / year respectively by 2025. With the blessing of "state-owned assets background + independent identity", the company may have a unique market share by virtue of the key links such as "base map update positioning" in the high-precision map. Judging from the orders obtained so far, after BMW and Daimler, Volvo's "cloud compliance", "high-precision map" and "automatic driving service platform" have been released, which clearly shows the business closed loop behind the orders, That is, from the home run of "information compliance - Data Modeling - base map verification - function display - positioning assistance", Ford orders are also examples, and subsequent orders are more worthy of expectation.
An integrator leading the rise of car gauge "China core". Jiefa technology, backed by the "gene" of MediaTek, has superior technical ability. Its product line covers four series: IVI, MCU, TPMS and AMP. Among them, MCU has broken the foreign monopoly. Under the background of lack of core, it has entered China's foreign main engine plants such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC, FAW, great wall, Tesla and Xiaopeng. It also provides MCU for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to use for its BMS power management chip. Traditional IVI chips have established a stable market position (accounting for more than 50% of the afterloading market for many years), and gradually penetrate into the front loading, and develop to the cockpit SOC at the same time; As China's first self-developed vehicle specification TPMS full-function single chip, the customer base has expanded rapidly.
Investment suggestion: 2022 is the first year of "map data + compliance security" SaaS revenue. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.04 billion and 2.28 billion. With reference to Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (it is in the high growth period of SaaS from 2020 to 2021, and the PS are 38 and 26 times respectively), the reasonable valuation range of this kind of business is 27 billion-39.5 billion. Not considering many "unicorns" owned by the company, such as Liufen technology, one of the best high-precision positioning service providers in China, 4D Zhilian, one of the best passenger vehicle networking providers, and Zhonghuan satellite, a Chinese head commercial vehicle front loading enterprise, only considering the estimated value of 10 billion yuan of traditional navigation business (Tencent took 11.28% of the company's shares of 1.173 billion yuan in 2014 as the industrial capital pricing benchmark) The chip business is valued at 14 billion yuan (refer to the valuation range of 20-30 times PS for Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) 1920 years of high growth period of leading A-share chip enterprises, and conservatively give jiefa 20 times PS in 2022, corresponding to the valuation of 14 billion yuan) + the cloud service valuation of 27-39.5 billion yuan. At present, the reasonable valuation range of the company is 51-63.5 billion yuan. Considering that the cloud service revenue is still in the first year of large volume, it has higher upward elasticity in the medium and long term, and maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of fluctuations in the global auto market; The recovery of downstream demand is less than expected; The R & D process of new technology does not meet expectations; Goodwill impairment risk.
