\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
The road to cloud is in the ascendant, and SaaS dividends "show sharp corners". 1) Cloud transformation is irresistible: the company began cloud transformation in the last four regions in 2021. By the end of 2021, the conversion rate has reached 60%, which is better than that of new regions in previous years. After turning to the cloud, various data are bright. In 2021, the growth rate of cloud revenue reached 58%, the overall net profit attributable to the parent company doubled, and the operating net cash flow continued to improve significantly. 2) The cloud revenue of cost business still has a large growth space: the neutral measurement space of cost business is about 8 billion yuan, and the cloud business space is nearly 7 billion yuan. In 2021, the cloud contract liabilities and cloud contract amount maintained a growth rate of more than 30%. On the one hand, the cost cloud revenue still has a high growth space, on the other hand, the SaaS model dividend has just begun to reflect.
Stone from other mountains: the benchmarking effect of yunlongtou is significant, and Glodon Company Limited(002410) fully anchors the pioneers. 1) The stable growth of cloud leader reflects its own value: Autodesk is the leader in the global SaaS field. In 2021, the revenue growth rate is 16%, the ARR growth rate is 16%, and the deferred revenue growth rate is 12%. It is expected that the revenue and arr growth rate will remain at about 15% in 2022, with the ability of sustainable growth. 2) Fully anchor the pioneer: the value of SaaS model lies in the improvement of cash flow + certainty, Glodon Company Limited(002410) and Autodesk's comprehensive benchmarking: first, the cloud revenue has achieved a high proportion; second, it has a high degree of productization, and the gross profit margin of the company's cost business exceeds 90%; third, the cash flow has improved significantly after turning to the cloud. The company fully anchors the pioneer in cloud business, and the value of SaaS model is prominent.
Looking forward to the second growth curve: smooth logic + orders in hand + large space, and the growth of construction business can be expected. 1) Good growth: orders continued to increase. The construction business focuses on the group and is rapidly promoted, and large-scale procurement has become an important driving force for growth. In 2021, the revenue of construction business increased by nearly 30%, the newly signed contract amount in 2021h1 increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the contract amount in 2021 increased year-on-year. 2) The development of construction enterprises is imperative. The overall development of the construction industry is slowing down, and the profit margin of Companies in the industry is under pressure. It is imperative to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and informatization is an important starting point for reducing costs and increasing efficiency; Procore, a comparable foreign company, has maintained a compound growth rate of about 50% at the revenue end in recent five years, verifying the Growth Logic of the industry. 3) Space calculation: under conservative / neutral / optimistic conditions, the market space available for the company's construction business in the long run is 11 / 22 / 33 billion yuan.
Long term new growth pole: breakthroughs have been made in the design business, and new businesses such as digital supply and acquisition continue to verify the development potential. 1) Design business: in 2021, the revenue was 131 million yuan, with a growth rate of 250.12%. The company has built a multi professional platform in the design field, and the large-scale promotion potential can be expected in the future. 2) Overseas business: cost, construction and other products have large-scale capacity, and the business in key regions has been promoted rapidly. 3) Digital supply and purchase and other businesses: the "square network" of digital supply and purchase platform has developed rapidly, and business benchmark cases such as digital city CIM have been implemented continuously.
Investment suggestion: Glodon Company Limited(002410) is a leading enterprise in the field of engineering cost. The SaaS transformation value of cost business is prominent. The digital construction business is expected to become a new core growth momentum of the company in the future. The design, digital supply and procurement and other businesses are gradually promoted to verify their development potential. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 6.912/83.67/10.182 billion yuan. According to the calculation of segment valuation method, the company's reasonable valuation is 91.6 billion yuan, which is obviously undervalued. At the same time, the long-term value and growth space of cloud leader are worth looking forward to, so it maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the industry competition intensifies and the product R & D progress is less than expected; The epidemic affects the prosperity of the downstream.
