\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Events
On the evening of March 28, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 30.167 billion yuan, an increase of 8.67% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, an increase of 43.34% at the same time; Non deduction was 2.21 billion yuan, an increase of 21.54%.
Key investment points
The epidemic affected the fourth quarter, and the rise of raw materials affected profits
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 30.167 billion yuan, an increase of 8.67% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, an increase of 43.34% at the same time; Non deduction was 2.21 billion yuan, an increase of 21.54%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.395 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -455 million yuan, an increase of 41% at the same time; Deduct non RMB -1.009 billion, with a decrease of 17% at the same time. Considering the land compensation of 436 million yuan, the actual loss in the fourth quarter was 891 million yuan and the profit loss in 2020q4 was 777 million yuan. The loss in the fourth quarter was caused by the impact of the epidemic and the amortization of fixed costs in the off-season.
The gross profit margin in 2021 was 36.71% (minus 4pct), of which 2021q4 was – 18.01% (minus 46pct), which was caused by the adjustment of accounting standards and the rise of raw materials; The net interest rate in 2021 was 10.79% (with an increase of 2.4pct), of which 2021q4 was – 13.58% (with an increase of 10PCT), which was caused by the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials and the confirmation of the investment in advertising expenses for the Winter Olympic Games. In 2021, the operating cost was 19.091 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% at the same time, which was due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the optimization of variety structure, resulting in the year-on-year increase in the operating cost of the current period. The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 22.00% in 2021, due to the increase in sales and the optimization of variety structure, resulting in the same increase of 11% in cash received from the sale of goods and the provision of labor services.
The main brands continued to rise in both volume and price, and the sales of high-grade wine were bright
By product, in 2021, the revenue of beer was 29.673 billion yuan (with an increase of 8.5%), the gross profit rate was 36.73% (with an increase of 1.3pct), the corresponding total sales volume was 7.93 million kiloliters (with an increase of 1.38%), and the corresponding price was 3700 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 6%). Among them, the beer sales volume of 2021q4 company was 846000 kiloliters, with a decrease of 3.65%, which was due to the repeated impact of the epidemic.
The main brand Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) has a revenue of 19.796 billion yuan (with an increase of 14.75%), a corresponding sales volume of 4.329 million kiloliters (with an increase of 11.6%), and a corresponding price of 4600 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 2%). The product structure continues to be optimized The sales volume of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) high-grade and above products was 520000 kiloliters, an increase of 14.2% at the same time. The revenue of other brands was 9.877 billion yuan (with a decrease of 2.1%), the corresponding sales volume was 3.6 million kiloliters (with a decrease of 8.7%), and the corresponding price was 2700 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 4%), benefiting from the price increase and brand upgrading of Laoshan.
In terms of subregions, in 2021, the revenue of Shandong was 19.747 billion yuan (with an increase of 10%), the sales volume was 5.3177 million kiloliters (with an increase of 3.4%), and the sales volume accounted for 67%; The revenue in North China was 7.275 billion yuan (with an increase of 12%), the sales volume was 2.0174 million kiloliters (with an increase of 7%), and the sales volume accounted for 25%. The revenue in South China was 3.367 billion yuan (with an increase of 3%), the corresponding sales volume was 930000 kiloliters (with a decrease of 1%), and the sales volume accounted for 12%. The revenue in East China was 2.792 billion yuan (basically the same), the sales volume was 905200 kiloliters (the same decrease of 7%), and the sales volume accounted for 11%. By the end of 2021, the company had 13265 dealers, with a net decrease of 1152. In terms of channels, in 2021, ready to drink sales such as catering night shows accounted for 44%, and non ready to drink sales such as Ka and circulation channels accounted for 56%.
The established brand strategy remains unchanged, and the high-end will continue
In 2022, the company will continue to promote the brand strategy of ” Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brand + the second brand of Laoshan beer”, and actively cultivate and develop strategic new products and new special products. The company will give full play to the advantages of production and sales network layout covering major markets in China, consolidate and improve its dominant position in the base market and its share in emerging markets, and build a consumer-centered marketing management system.
In addition, the company will build an ecosystem in which multiple business forms are deeply related, complementary and altruistic. Relying on the chain business of “tsingtao1903 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) bar”, we strive to create a new highland for brand promotion, consumer experience, fresh beer and other high-end beer sales. The established high-end process of the company remains unchanged, and the product structure will continue to be optimized. Looking forward to 2022, with the continuous rise of raw materials, we believe that the company is expected to respond by raising prices directly or indirectly, and is expected to continue to release performance under the continuous optimization of product structure.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the continuous release of performance under the continuous optimization of the company’s product structure and the improvement of management efficiency. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.50/2.99/3.48 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 33 / 27 / 24 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, lower than expected sales in peak seasons, lower than expected price increases, rising raw materials, etc.
