\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Event: Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) released the 21st Annual Report, and the company achieved annual revenue of 13.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%. Among them, 21q4 company achieved a revenue of 1.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
Cost control continued to exceed expectations, and the nationalization of USSR continued to achieve high growth Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) 2021 achieved sales volume of 2.79 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15%, mainly due to the 34% / 36% increase in sales volume of Wusu / 1664 and other high-end products, and the medium-range price Lebao and Chongqing brands continued to maintain a 10% + growth rate. Under the background of active volume control in 21q4, Wusu’s sales volume still maintained a rapid growth in the whole year of 21, and is expected to continue to increase high after straightening out the channel management in 22. We expect Wusu’s annual sales volume to exceed 1 million tons in 22. From the perspective of ton price, the company’s ton price of beer increased by 5.0% year-on-year to 4601 yuan / kiloliter in 21 years, mainly due to the contribution of direct price increase / product structure upgrading. Wusu and 1664 contour products will still be the main driving force for the company’s ton price improvement. Among them, the economic price per ton increased by about 6.2% in 21 years, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the upgrading of internal product structure of economic price + direct price increase. From the perspective of cost side, the Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) year-on-year decline of about 0.1% in 21 years was mainly due to the company’s excellent cost management and dilution of fixed costs under the effect of scale. It is expected that in 22 years, heavy beer will continue to rely on excellent cost control and direct price increase measures to digest the upward pressure of costs.
The adjustment of Wusu 21q4 is coming to an end, and sailing 22 ushers in the final battle. Looking at 21q4 alone, the sales volume of heavy beer increased slightly by 1.1% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 2.1%, the revenue per ton increased by 3.2%, and the operating cost per ton decreased by 18% (before adjustment). Heavy beer adjusted the Bu system in 21q4, actively controlled the sales rhythm, and included some Wusu sales into the winter storage plan. Looking forward to 22 years, at present, the organization integration, personnel integration and dealer integration outside Wusu Xinjiang are basically coming to an end. In the short term, they may be affected by the impact of the epidemic, but the million sales are basically safe in the whole year. From the perspective of growth space: 1) Wusu plans to add 15 big cities in 22 years, cover blank cities / points or continue to promote Wusu growth, and the past 20 Wusu big cities plan to be upgraded to 6 + 6 full brand development; 2) After the adjustment of Bu system, Wusu may sink its channels in markets such as East and South China. Taking Beijing market as an example, it has begun to accelerate the expansion of channel depth recently; 3) In 22 years, Wusu may introduce Wusu white beer, black beer and other categories outside Xinjiang, which is derived from the growth of single category of red Wusu to the growth of whole category.
Yangfan 27 will continue to pay attention to the growth of China and increase the cost investment in 22 years to achieve the share growth. Carlsberg group released the sail 27 strategy and “continue to succeed in China” has become one of the strategic priorities. It is expected that Yangfan 27 will focus on the three dimensions of “growth, sales and talents”, and heavy beer will be more proactive in its market attack in the next five years. In 2022, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) or increase the fee investment to realize the rapid growth of sales volume: 1) Wusu has changed from the free growth in the early stage to the deep nationalization, and increased the investment of channel expenses to realize the fine operation of channels; 2) Wu Jing, the newly hired spokesman of Wusu, continued to strengthen air publicity to strengthen the business cycle of Wusu. We believe that in the past 22 years, more attention has been paid to increasing the share of fee investment and realizing deep nationalization under the high channel profits of Wusu.
Cost control continued to exceed expectations, Wusu cycle continued, and the “buy” rating was maintained. Considering the deep nationalization of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) USSR / price increase transmission / cost intensive control, we expect the revenue to be 15.5171797720720 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 18.3% / 15.9% / 15.3% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.417/17.11/2.047 billion yuan, an increase of 21.5% / 20.7% / 19.7% at the same time; Corresponding to pe38 31/31.73/26.52X。
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The dynamic sales of the channel are less than expected; Intensified high-end competition; The reform was less than expected.
