\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 75 Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) )
In 2021, the revenue increased significantly, the net profit decreased, and the wind power and photovoltaic sectors became the main profit points of the company. In 2021, the revenue was 13.178 billion yuan (+ 30.99%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan (- 5.79%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 361 million yuan (+ 11.45%). In 2021, the business revenue of all sectors of the company increased significantly, including thermal power, wind power, photovoltaic, thermal power, operation and maintenance and other revenue of RMB 4.27 billion, 2.58 billion, 7.3 billion, 1.32 billion and 2.28 billion respectively, with an increase of 7%, 39%, 34%, 16% and 122% respectively. The wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) sectors have become the main support of the company’s revenue and profit.
The decline in profits was mainly due to the rise in coal prices and a sharp loss in the thermal power sector
Both gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased, dragging down roe. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 21.30% (-1.47 PCT) and net profit margin was 5.95% (-1.98 PCT). Among them, the gross profit margins of thermal power, wind power, photovoltaic, thermal power, operation and maintenance and others are 11% (- 1.0%), 53% (- 0.7%), 47% (- 8.5%), 38% (- 11.7%) and 9% (+ 9.3%) respectively. The sharp rise in coal prices leads to the decline of profitability of thermal power and thermal energy sector; The decline in gross profit margin of photovoltaic sector is mainly due to the decline in unit utilization hours. In 2021, the utilization hours of photovoltaic units were 1223 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 191 hours. In 2021, roe was 4.65%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.66pct, mainly due to the decline of net interest rate. The company continues to strengthen the development of new energy and strive to achieve “secondary transformation”. The company defines the “14th five year plan” development strategy, vigorously develops new energy, and initially builds the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy industry by 2025. The installed capacity is more than 20 million kilowatts, the proportion of clean energy is more than 90%, and the substitution of biomass energy and electric energy is well applied. By the end of the 20th century, the total installed capacity of the company was 10.45gw, including 7.15gw for new energy and 3.3gw for thermal power. The installed proportion of new energy was 68.41%. Since the second half of 2021, the company has invested in photovoltaic projects in many provinces and cities, and established two subsidiaries mainly engaged in new energy, energy storage and smart energy to accelerate the pace of secondary transformation.
Risk warning: the industry policy is not as expected; Electricity consumption declines; Coal prices rose sharply.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
Due to the rapid growth of the company’s new business income, the profit forecast was raised and the “buy” rating was maintained. We estimate that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s operating revenue will be 15.7 billion yuan, 17.6 billion yuan and 19.4 billion yuan respectively (the original value in 2022 and 2023 will be 14.7 billion yuan and 16.9 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 19%, 12% and 11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.54 billion yuan, 1.96 billion yuan and 2.24 billion yuan respectively (the original value in 2022 and 2023 was 1.22 billion yuan and 1.54 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 195%, 50% and 14%; EPS is 0.55, 0.70 and 0.80 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 15.5, 12.1 and 10.6x. The company’s thermal power and thermal power business has little profit, and the main profit is the contribution of new energy. It gives the company 18-20 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value of 9.90-11.00 yuan / share, which has 16% ~ 29% premium space compared with the current stock price, and maintains the “buy” rating.
