\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 219 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) )
Event: Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) released the annual report for 2021, and the operating revenue in 2021 was 28.725 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.82%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.43%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 892 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.29% and a month on month decrease of 11.95%. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 3.337 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 71.40%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 859 million in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 33.70% and a month on month decrease of 15.43%.
High value-added processed products and recycled aluminum are expected to upgrade the integrated industrial chain and continue to increase profits. The company has formed a complete aluminum industry chain production line from thermoelectric - alumina - electrolytic aluminum - melting and casting - (aluminum profile / hot rolling - cold rolling - Foil Rolling / forging), and actively layout recycled aluminum, which is expected to continue to increase profits. The company actively distributes alumina resources at home and abroad, with an annual production capacity of 1.4 million tons of projects in China and Indonesia; The annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 820000 tons. In terms of integrated processing products, the company has focused on developing high value-added products in recent years. According to the company's investor Q & a platform, as of the third quarter of 2021, the company has high value-added production capacity such as 200000 tons of automobile sector and 91000 tons of aluminum foil (including 30000 tons of power battery foil). The company is the only enterprise in China that can supply automobile sectors in batch. At the same time, it is also the manufacturer with the fastest certification progress, the most certified manufacturers and the most complete certified alloys in China.
The sales volume of high-end products increased and the product structure continued to be optimized: the sales volume of the company's high-end products accounted for 12.66% of the total sales volume of aluminum products, with a year-on-year increase of 6.66%. In 2021, Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) basically realized the balance of production and sales, and the production and sales of alumina were 22722 / 2262600 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.03% / 23.52%; The production and sales of electrolytic aluminum were 8445 / 951500 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.94% / - 6.01%; The production and sales of alloy ingots were 13365 / 1504800 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.82% / 3.57%; The production and sales of cold rolling were 8256 / 900000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.89% / 16.22%; The production and sales of hot rolling were 10948 / 1125600 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.26% / 5.61%.
Comprehensive layout of projects under construction, continuous upgrading of aluminum processing capacity, and large-scale integration of high value-added capacity in the future or further opening of profit space: the company's long-term incremental projects and plans include: 1) Indonesia 2 million ton alumina project, phase I 1 million tons was completed and put into operation in May 2021, and successfully reached production in September. Phase II 1 million tons is expected to be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2022. 2) The production capacity of automobile sector is 200000 tons (the production capacity of the first production line is 100000 tons, and the production capacity of the second production line is 100000 tons. The construction period is about 18 months. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023, and the long-term planned production capacity is 7 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 00000 tons. 3) The 100000 ton recycled aluminum project is under construction.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of RMB 33.36 billion, 37.17 billion and 39.7 billion respectively from 2022 to 2024, and net profit of RMB 4.22 billion, 4.70 billion and 5.77 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.35, 0.39 and 0.48/share respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 11.5, 10.3 and 8.4 times. Maintain the "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price is 5.5 yuan / share.
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected, the product price fluctuates, and the environmental protection risk and project progress are less than expected
