\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Events
On the evening of April 1, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 13.119 billion yuan, an increase of 19.90% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, with an increase of 38.82% (data in the pro forma statement) and 8.30% (data legally disclosed).
Key investment points
The epidemic affected the fourth quarter, and the two unit brands performed well. The company’s revenue in 2021 was 13.119 billion yuan, an increase of 19.90% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, with an increase of 38.82% (data in the pro forma statement) and 8.30% (data legally disclosed). It is basically consistent with the previous performance express. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 1.933 billion yuan, an increase of 1.08% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, with a pro forma caliber of – 07 million yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits year-on-year. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 50.94% (with an increase of 3.3pct), of which 2021q4 was 37.9% (with a decrease of 16pct), which was caused by the impact of the adjustment of accounting standards on the gross profit margin by adjusting the freight to the cost; The net profit margin in 2021 was 18.3% (with an increase of 2pct), of which 2021q4 was 12.33% (with a decrease of 3PCT), which was caused by the decline of gross profit margin. The company’s beer sales volume in 2021 was 2.7894 million kiloliters, an increase of 15.1% at the same time; Among them, the sales volume of beer in 2021q4 was 372600 kiloliters, a decrease of 2.1% in the same period, which was caused by the impact of the epidemic in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the international brand will be 729100 kiloliters (with an increase of 14%), and the corresponding price will be 6300 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 9%); 2.06 million kiloliters of local brands (with an increase of 15.5%), and the corresponding price is 4000 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 3%). Wusu, 1664 and other product combinations rely on large cities for large-scale production.
The volume and price continued to rise, and the high-end process was significant
In terms of products, the revenue of beer in 2021 was 12.835 billion yuan, an increase of 21% and the gross profit margin was 51.4% (an increase of 2.5pct); Including 4.515 billion yuan for international brands, with an increase of 22% and a gross profit of 54.7% (with an increase of 2.5pct); Local brands amounted to 8.320 billion yuan, with an increase of 20% and a gross profit margin of 49.5% (with an increase of 2.5pct). In terms of volume and price, the sales volume of beer in 2021 was 2.7894 million kiloliters (an increase of 15.1% at the same time). Among them, the revenue of high-grade beer was 4.682 billion yuan (with an increase of 43.5%), the sales volume was 661500 kiloliters (with an increase of 40.5%), the sales volume accounted for 24% (with an increase of 4pct), and the corresponding price was 7100 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 3%); The revenue of mainstream beer was 6.55 billion yuan (with an increase of 11%), the sales volume was 1.6145 million kiloliters (with an increase of 11%), and the corresponding price was 4100 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 3%); The revenue of economic beer was 1.605 billion yuan (with an increase of 11%), the sales volume was 513400 kiloliters (with an increase of 4%), and the corresponding price was 3100 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 7%).
In terms of sub regions, the revenue of Northwest China in 2021 was 4.193 billion yuan, with an increase of 25% and a gross profit margin of 46.8% (with an increase of 0.4pct); The revenue of the central region was 5.316 billion yuan, an increase of 14% and the gross profit margin was 48.8% (an increase of 3.8 PCT); The revenue of the Southern District was 3.326 billion yuan, with an increase of 28% and a gross profit margin of 61% (with an increase of 2.2pct).
Wusu drives the high-end process and focuses on the ending year of “sailing 22”
In 2021, relying on the brand combination of “international high-end brand + local strong brand”, the company launched a series of new products, including “summer fun”, “Loulan secret brew” and so on. Since December 2020, the company has completed a major asset restructuring project with Carlsberg. Its production network has increased from 14 holding (participating) wineries in three provinces to 26 holding (participating) wineries in nine provinces. Its core market has expanded from Chongqing, Sichuan and Hunan to Xinjiang, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangdong and East China, realized national layout and promoted the opening of national space for products.
2022 is the year when the company’s Yangfan 22 strategy ends. The company has released Yangfan 27 strategy on February 3, 2022. We think we need to pay attention to the following five points: 1) Chongqing brand will continue to revitalize its brand image and strengthen local connection in 2022. At the same time, it will continue to accelerate the process of high-end products, and continuously promote the high-end brand through the single product combination of medium and high-end products and above. 2) Continue to promote high-end products in the core market and consolidate the share of core beer; Big cities plan to continue to accelerate expansion, optimize product mix in some key markets and strengthen implementation; Promote the digitization of sales channels. 3) E-commerce will use platform big data to develop new flavors and new packaging, accelerate product innovation iteration, and significantly increase the proportion of e-commerce special products. 4) In terms of traditional retail, the company will quickly promote the business growth of small formats of non current beverage channels, continue to maintain the sales growth of large formats and current beverage channels, and further increase the market share. 5) In terms of supply chain, the company will further break the bottleneck of production capacity and realize the principle of nearby supply of products. Focus on optimizing the bottle return network to improve the bottle return rate.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the continuous release of performance under the company’s high-end + National Space and product structure optimization. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.90/3.64/4.36 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 39 / 31 / 26 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, epidemic drag on consumption, lower than expected sales in peak season, lower than expected price increase, lower than expected growth in USSR, rise in raw materials, etc.
