\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
Event: on March 16, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the revenue was 3.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.77%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%, and the non net profit deducted was 548 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.88%, slightly lower than the market expectation.
Key investment points
The aviation industry has witnessed rapid growth of composite materials and improved business quality. The company's revenue in 2021 was 3.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.77%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%. The production and delivery volume of prepreg products in the whole year reached a record high, of which the annual operating revenue of aviation industry composite materials was 3.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.08%, and the net profit was 685 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.60%. The business of Youcai Baimu expanded rapidly, with a revenue of 87.02 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.62%, and a net profit of 12.46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 469.11%. The machine tool equipment business has improved, with an annual revenue of 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.85%, and a year-on-year decrease in total profit of 7.05 million yuan. Affected by the centralized mining, the operating income of Beijing Airlines biology was 13.75 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.02%, and the loss expanded.
Advance receipts have increased significantly, and the performance is expected to release rapidly. In 2021, the company's contract liabilities reached 696 million yuan, a significant increase of 530.59% over the beginning of the year, which is due to the increase in advance receipts of aviation prepreg, and the leading products occupy a strong position in the downstream and grow at a high speed; On the cost side, the R & D expenditure of 151 million yuan was invested in 2021, with a significant year-on-year increase of 66.9%, which is a solid foundation for a breakthrough in the field of domestic T800 carbon fiber. The company's actual executed amount of related party transactions in 2021 was 2.773 billion, accounting for only 79% of the expected amount, mainly due to the change in the rhythm of product demand of some customers, and the income of the unfinished part is expected to be released intensively in 2022. At the same time, orderly promote the capital and share increase of the subsidiary Youcai Baimu, and rely on the technical advantages of prepreg to cut into the field of aviation and rail transit brake discs, so as to further thicken the company's performance.
Prepreg products remain in the lead and widely participate in key projects. China is in the period of accelerating the assembly of new aviation equipment and the accelerated development of domestic large aircraft. The consumption of composite materials has increased and the industry has great room for growth. Backed by the aviation industry group, the company has decades of technology accumulation and has established a deep moat in the field of aviation prepreg in China. In particular, it has strong competitiveness in composite design technology and engineering. Moreover, due to the high entry threshold of the military market, the market space pattern created by large-scale military aircraft is stable and sustainable. In terms of civil aviation, the company expands the business field of aviation composite materials and carries out key research work around scientific research / models such as large civil aircraft and civil aviation engine, cr929 front fuselage, C919 tail and ag600, which is expected to cultivate new strategic business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the high prosperity of the military industry in the 14th Five Year Plan period and the development prospect of the company's aviation business, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 853 / 1101 / 1377 million respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.61, RMB 0.79 and RMB 0.99 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 36 / 28 / 23 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) downstream demand and order fluctuation; 2) The company's profit is less than expected; 3) Market systemic risk.
