\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Achieve high-quality development in 2021, accelerate market-oriented reform in 2022, and maintain the "buy" rating
The company achieved a total operating revenue of 109.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%; The total profit was 74.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.3%. As the progress of channel reform exceeded expectations, we maintained the profit forecast for 2022, raised the profit forecast for 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. The net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 62.3 (+ 0.00), 726.9 (+ 10.6) and 84.04 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 49.38 (+ 0.00), 57.86 (+ 0.83) and 66.90 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 36.0, 30.8 and 26.6 times respectively. In 2022, the company entered the acceleration stage of market-oriented reform and maintained the "buy" rating.
The volume and price of Maotai liquor have risen simultaneously, and the price of series liquor has made a greater contribution
In 2021, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2%, the gross profit margin was + 0.04 PCT, and the sales volume was 36300 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7%. The sales volume was significantly higher than that in 2020, mainly due to the obvious increase of base liquor production capacity in 2017 and 2018, and the rationalization of channel reform created good conditions for the increase of delivery volume; The price contribution accounted for half, mainly due to the price increase of ultra-high-end products and the increase in the proportion of direct channels. The sales volume of series liquor was 30200 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 1.5%, the revenue was 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%, and the gross profit margin was + 3.55 PCT. The product structure of series liquor has been significantly improved. Maotai 1935, as a strategic single product, will drive the scale growth of series liquor.
The proportion of direct channels continued to increase, and the introduction of e-commerce accelerated the transformation of channels
In 2021, the company sold 5700 tons through direct sales channels, with a year-on-year increase of + 45.9%, and the revenue was 24.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 81.49%; The wholesale channel was 60700 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 1.0%, and the revenue was 82.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.6%. On the one hand, in order to undertake Maotai's formal investment in the second half of the market, Maotai is mainly engaged in the follow-up channel reform of Maotai; On the other hand, strengthen the company's control over product prices.
Advance receipts remained high, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin increased slightly
In 2021, the company's contract liabilities were 12.72 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 3.58 billion yuan, and the contract liabilities remained high. The gross profit margin was 91.54%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.13pct. The company resisted the negative impact of the sharp rise in raw materials through product structure adjustment and price increase of some products. The sales / management / tax expense rates were 2.50% / 7.72% / 13.98% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.10pct / + 0.79pct / - 0.19pct respectively, and the company's net profit margin increased from + 0.29pct to 52.47% year-on-year.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
