\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 30 Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) )
Investment logic
The implementation of the strategic layout of "differentiation + integration + internationalization" has achieved remarkable results: the company started the International China synchronous development strategy in 2005, many production lines successively passed the GMP review of who, EU and FDA, and a variety of export varieties of preparations were included in the priority review. From 2012 to 2020, the company's overseas business achieved a compound growth of 136.11%, and its proportion in the company's revenue increased from 0.15% to 13.82%. In addition, the company's anqing API project was promoted in an orderly manner, providing support for the integrated development of the company's API preparations.
The release of new capacity is expected to promote the company's business growth. From 2017 to the first three quarters of 2020, the company's capacity utilization rate was 29.00%, 115.50%, 83.30% and 88.00%. As R & D occupies part of the production capacity, the overall production capacity of the company is relatively tight in 2020. In 2021, the "international high-end production line expansion project" of the convertible bond raised investment project has a design capacity of 90 million units, which is 9 times the injection capacity of the company in 2020. It is planned to reach the production capacity successively from the fourth year to the eighth year after construction; In 2020, the design capacity of API of "Puli international high-end API and innovative preparation manufacturing base project" will be 360 tons. With the release of new production capacity, the company's business is expected to continue to develop rapidly.
Take advantage of international production capacity to undertake cdmo business: thanks to the scarce global injection production capacity, the company's cdmo service supports the declaration of China, the United States and Europe, and can provide one-stop service of raw materials + preparations. The rich dosage forms can meet the special needs of the market. At present, the company has cooperated with celsion in several projects, including gen-1 immunotherapy for the treatment of newly diagnosed patients with ovarian cancer and DNA vaccine.
Actively carry out pharmaceutical innovation layout: in terms of self-research, the company aims at the field of international innovative drugs and actively layout product pipelines, including tumor, radiography, respiratory diseases and other indication fields. In terms of cooperation, the company cooperates with the Institute of high energy of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to study the treatment of cancer by boron neutron capture therapy, and carries out nano drug research for efficient delivery of mRNA / small molecule inhibitors with the national nanoscience center. The forward-looking layout of innovative drugs lays the foundation for the long-term development of the company's business.
Investment advice and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021e to 2023e will be 530 / 714 / 970 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.21/1.63/2.22 yuan. With reference to comparable companies, the company will be given 30 times PE in 2022 and the target price will be 48.99 yuan. It will be covered for the first time, and the company will be rated as "overweight".
Risk tips
Generic drug R & D risk, innovative drug R & D risk, drug quality risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, restricted stock lifting risk, other regulatory risks, etc.
