\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 690 Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) )
Investment logic
The whole industrial chain of the company is demand-oriented and is the leader of the third consumption era. The product side has grasped the general trend of consumption upgrading. Casati has become the first high-end brand in China, and the compound growth rate is expected to be about 25% from 2022 to 2025. Three winged bird has further accelerated resource integration + systematic sales, and has settled in more than 1000 stores; The manufacturing end is leading in the industry, and the transformation of the whole production process is accelerated; The channel side has improved its control over new retail, and made steady progress in reducing fees and improving efficiency.
Overseas independent brands have sufficient competitiveness and broad space. The company has acquired overseas for many times since 2015, and has completed the layout of all-level independent brands in major regions of the world. The market share continues to increase. The export CAGR from 2017 to 2021 was 14.4%. It is estimated that there is still about $25 billion in revenue overseas. The company will base itself on developed markets and accelerate the layout of emerging markets. In terms of profit, there are many channels and brands in the early stage, and the merger and acquisition of GEA generates high financial expenses. At present, the profit margin of overseas operations has continued to increase to 5.2%, which still has room compared with competitors.
Marginal improvement and overall acceleration. Previously, the relatively short board air conditioning and kitchen electricity business has improved under the guidance of high-end. The market share of air conditioning has increased to 16.6% (zhongyikang caliber) in 21 years. Kitchen electricity has multi brand technical reserves and continues to promote new products; Implement the long-term equity incentive plan. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2025 has a compound growth rate of no less than 15% compared with 2021, providing strong support for the company's medium and long-term growth.
Investment advice and valuation
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 252.3 billion yuan, 276.8 billion yuan and 302.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, 9.7% and 9.2% respectively. The company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is estimated to be 15.32 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan and 20.37 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, 16.2% and 14.5% respectively. The corresponding EPS are 1.62, 1.88 and 2.16 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price from 2022 to 2024 is 14.6x, 12.6x and 11.0x respectively. 20 times valuation in 2022, target price of 32.44 yuan, first coverage, and "buy" rating.
Risk
The risk of overseas epidemic prevention and control falling short of expectations, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of rising raw materials and the risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations.
