\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 662 Guangdong Fuxin Technology Co.Ltd(688662) )
Core view
China's semiconductor thermoelectric refrigeration technology leader. The company is one of the few providers of semiconductor thermoelectric technology solutions and application products in the whole industrial chain outside China. It integrates the application of semiconductor thermoelectric devices, systems and complete machines. Its products are widely used in various emerging consumer electronics scenes. Under the background of domestic substitution, the company broke through the high-end field and gradually expanded its application scenarios to the fields of communication, automobile, medical treatment and so on. In the future, the company is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer electronics demand on the demand side, and open up long-term incremental space for new scenarios and applications; On the supply side, the Chinese market enjoys domestic substitution. Both sides of supply and demand are improving at the same time, with capacity expansion and product upgrading for two-dimensional growth.
The consumption upgrading trend is clear, and the demand for semiconductor thermoelectric technology continues to emerge. The consumer electronics scene of thermoelectric technology is dominated by quality life appliances. Previously, the market was mostly concentrated in European and American developed countries. With the upgrading trend of Chinese consumption, quality life appliances are expected to usher in a breakthrough in the Chinese market in the future. According to Zhiyan consulting data, the company accounted for nearly 20% of the semiconductor refrigerated household refrigerators (beer machines, constant temperature refrigerators, etc.) exported in 19 years. In addition, the company has developed thermoelectric devices applied to mobile phone heat dissipation back clips and water ion hair dryers, which are well sold in the Chinese market. As the impact of the epidemic subsides, the company's consumer electronics products are expected to resume steady growth.
Break through the high-end field, and the increment of communication / Automobile / medical treatment is considerable. The company's products have broken through the high-end field and successfully entered into the high value-added Tec application fields such as communication, automobile, industry, aerospace and national defense. Its performance and reliability are equivalent to the level of international leading enterprises, and has cost advantages and market space for domestic substitution. According to the data of Jianju technology, there are about 70 million thermoelectric devices in the optical communication market in 2019; By 2024, driven by the construction of base stations, the demand will increase to 330 million, with 19-24 ecagr as high as 36%. The company's high-performance micro thermoelectric refrigeration device products for communication optical modules have been shipped in batches to a global leading communication equipment customer. It has become one of the few manufacturers in China that can produce micro thermoelectric refrigeration devices for optical module temperature control, and there is considerable room for growth in the future. At the same time, the company's thermoelectric technology is also applied in the scenes of lidar and medical equipment. The medical field has been introduced into well-known enterprises in Huada Zhizao, Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) and other industries, which is expected to benefit from the vigorous development of downstream application industries and usher in strong demand.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 1.44 yuan, 2.05 yuan and 2.86 yuan respectively. According to the 22-year 31 times PE valuation of comparable companies, the corresponding target price is 44.64 yuan, and the buy rating will be given for the first coverage.
Risk tips
The expansion of high-end products is less than expected, the overseas business is less than expected, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, and the high proportion of large customers of thermoelectric machine products.
