\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 058 Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) )
In 2021, due to the shortage of shipping and the sharp rise of raw materials, the profit decreased year-on-year. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 17.998 billion yuan (year-on-year + 16.84%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.313 billion yuan (year-on-year - 11.97%). Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 4.753 billion yuan (mom + 3.5%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 311 million yuan (mom + 4.01%). The overall performance is basically in line with our expectations. In 2021, the tire industry was impacted by factors such as tight shipping and rising prices of raw materials. The gross profit margin of the company's annual tire sales reached 19.9%. The year-on-year decline was 9.45pct.
The tense situation of shipping has eased, and the price of raw materials has stabilized to fall. We judge that the shortage of shipping is expected to ease in the second half of the year. However, since March 22, the shipping cost has shown an obvious downward trend. The benchmark freight rates from Shanghai to the East and west of the United States have decreased by 12% and 17% respectively, indicating that the shortage of shipping has improved. In terms of raw materials, the market had expected that the high oil price might drive the price of some raw materials to rise in 22 years. However, according to the current situation, the price of main raw materials natural rubber and synthetic rubber did not rise significantly, and tire enterprises would also adopt the long-term cooperation model to stabilize the cost in the procurement process. Therefore, we believe that raw materials are expected to stabilize and fall in 22 years, Drive the profit level of tire enterprises to gradually repair.
Tire production and sales continue to grow, and the new factory can be expected to produce large quantities. In 2021, the company's tire output reached 45.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%; The sales volume reached 43.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.98%. The growth of tire production and sales is mainly due to the gradual launch of new production capacity of the company's factories in Vietnam, Shenyang and Weifang. These new production capacity will continue to increase in 22 years, and the company's factory in Cambodia will also be the largest growth point this year.
The market recognition of liquid gold tire is expected to gradually improve. Liquid gold tire is a highlight of the company. Liquid gold tire has successfully solved the "devil's triangle" problem of tire rolling resistance, wet skid resistance and wear resistance, which has plagued the industry for many years, making driving safer, energy-saving and comfortable. According to the calculation of oil vehicles, the five trucks equipped with liquid gold tires save 3 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers compared with the original truck's own tires. Compared with similar products fed back by China's first-class brands in China's heavy truck market, liquid gold tires save 14000 liters of fuel per vehicle per year, save 92000 yuan per vehicle, and reduce 37.6 tons of carbon dioxide; According to the calculation of electric vehicles, a taxi using liquid gold tires can save 2.04 degrees of electricity per 100 kilometers and 4284 yuan of electricity per year. We believe that with the continuous promotion of liquid gold tire, its advantages will be gradually accepted by the market, driving the improvement of the company's profitability and industry status.
Investment suggestion: due to the high price of raw materials, the 22-year profit forecast is lowered and the 24-year profit forecast is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.8/3/3.2 billion yuan, EPS = 0.59/0.96/1.06 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to PE = 17 / 10 / 9x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the mitigation of maritime transportation is not as expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The launch of new production capacity did not meet expectations; The market promotion of liquid gold tire did not meet expectations, etc.
