\u3000\u30 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 57 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) )
Core view
Q4’s operating revenue margin improved, and high costs squeezed profits: 21q4 company achieved revenue of 12.703 billion yuan, an increase of 6.05% month on month, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 519 million yuan, a decrease of 42.4% month on month. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of 21q4 reached 20.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.35pct, a month on month decrease of 1.63pct, and the net profit margin of sales was 4.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.65pct and a month on month decrease of 2.97pct. 21h2 the sales growth rate of construction machinery products represented by excavators declined, and the prosperity of the industry was under pressure, which had a certain impact on the company’s revenue. At the same time, the cost of raw materials remained high, resulting in the decline of gross profit margin and other profitability.
The share of fist products continues to lead, and the gross profit margin is under short-term pressure: the company’s main products maintain the leading position, but the gross profit margin has declined. Among them, (1) the annual income of concrete machinery is 16.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.72%, and the gross profit margin is 24.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.11 PCT; (2) The revenue of hoisting machinery was 36.494 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, and the gross profit margin was 23.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.73 PCT. We believe that the decline in gross profit margin is mainly related to the rise in the price of raw materials and the adjustment of accounting standards for transportation expenses. In terms of share, the sales volume of truck cranes of 30 tons and above ranks first in the industry, the sales scale of construction hoisting machinery ranks first in the world, and the market share of concrete machinery long boom pump truck, on-board pump and mixing plant ranks first in the industry.
Continuous breakthrough in potential business: the company’s potential products have made a breakthrough in development in 21 years, and the excavator has grown rapidly. (1) The annual revenue of earth moving machinery was 3.237 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.47%, and the gross profit margin was 18.93%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.90 PCT; (2) The revenue of other machinery and products was 7.413 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.27%, and the gross profit margin was 22.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.27 PCT, of which the sales of overhead operation machinery was 3.351 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 310.76%; (3) The annual income of agricultural machinery was 2.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.92%, and the gross profit margin was 13.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87 PCT, Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) realizing the commercialization; (4) The business of dry mixed mortar equipment continued to grow steadily, ranking the first echelon in China, and continued to develop the new material business.
Under the background of steady growth, the company will benefit from counter cyclical adjustment: the prosperity of the construction machinery industry is low before and high after 2021, and the high price of raw materials has also eroded the profits of the enterprise. Under this background, Zoomlion’s flagship products still maintain a leading market position, and the potential business (excavator / high machine) has achieved breakthrough growth, reflecting the competitive strength of the company. Looking ahead, the state continues to emphasize the importance of stability, moderately advanced infrastructure investment, good margins of real estate and continuous implementation of affordable housing policies. We believe that the demand in the downstream will gradually pick up and the prosperity of construction machinery will pick up. However, considering the uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic at the beginning of the year, the construction and landing of infrastructure projects or the middle of the year, we lowered the assumptions about the growth rate of some products and raised the assumptions related to aerial work platforms; Considering that the price of raw materials is still at a high level, we lowered the expectation of gross profit margin and lowered the original forecast net profit attributable to the parent company from 10.8/11.9 billion yuan to 7.3/9 billion yuan in 22-23 years. The 22-year average valuation of comparable companies is 8xpe. Considering the higher growth rate brought by the company’s potential business, the company is given a 20% premium, corresponding to 10 times of the 22-year PE and a target price of 8.50 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Investment in infrastructure and real estate has declined, the price of raw materials has risen, industry competition has intensified, and the market for new products has changed.
