\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 786 Jiangxi Yuean Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(688786) )
Two kinds of powder platform cooperation and three kinds of deep processing integration extension
A few in China master the preparation process of carbonyl iron powder and atomized alloy powder at the same time. Carbonyl iron powder is the core business and the main force contributing to profits; Atomized alloy powder is to expand business and support large-scale development. At the same time, the two basic powders can be further processed into soft magnetic materials, MIM feeding materials and microwave absorbing materials. On the technical side, master the core technologies of "high-pressure cyclic synthesis of carbonyl iron", "atmospheric pressure thermal decomposition" and "ultra-fine carbonyl iron soft magnetic for high-performance powder core", and the products are world-leading and can be replaced by imports; At the cost side, the gas in the preparation process of the two powders is shared; At the product end, two kinds of foundation + three kinds of deep-processing powder are used to build one-stop demand, and the production line can be switched flexibly; The client is connected with the head brand, and the downstream high coincidence degree of the two basic powders is conducive to the development of products.
The basic carbonyl iron powder has thick snow and long slope, and the universal atomized alloy powder has many flowers
Carbonyl iron powder: at present, the iron powder with the best performance can be produced on a large scale in the world. In 2016, the global production capacity was 22000 tons, with high technical and regulatory barriers. Its application scenarios include automotive electronics, servers, microwave absorbing materials, high-end structural parts, diamond tools, cemented carbide, food additives, etc. It deeply processes carbonyl iron soft magnetism and makes miniaturized integrated chip inductors. It has the advantages of miniaturization, high frequency, high current resistance, anti magnetism and environmental interference. It is suitable for electronic scenes with high volume requirements, performance requirements, safety requirements and less price sensitive: the penetration rate of automotive electronics is improved, and the trend of replacing wound inductors appears.
Atomized alloy powder: metal or alloy powder prepared by air / water atomization. The application scenarios cover structural parts such as consumer electronics, automobile, MIM and 3D printing; Functional components such as smart phones, laptops, optical storage, new energy vehicles, variable frequency air conditioners, UPS, etc. In the structural application, MIM process shows its advantages, the penetration of camera support + Intelligent wear + folding screen hinge is improved, and the prosperity repair of consumer electronics is superimposed to stimulate the release of demand. The growth rate of inductor and new energy storage is high, and the demand for new energy is stable.
The reconstruction and expansion project has doubled the production capacity and opened up the growth space for military microwave absorption & powder core soft magnetic
The company's raised investment and self owned capital reconstruction and expansion project will add 6000 tons of carbonyl iron powder + 4000 tons of high-performance metal or alloy powder. In terms of carbonyl iron powder, 1-30 micron fine powder maintains a growth rate of 30-40%, 30 micron + coarse powder has a broad incremental market, military microwave absorbing materials are expected to open up long-term development, and the company's production expansion rhythm meets the downstream growth rate. In terms of alloy powder, 2000 tons of soft magnetic material for high-performance powder core is expected to open up the incremental market of wound inductors and realize the full coverage of the company's inductance application fields from electronics to power.
Investment advice and profit forecast
As the leader of carbonyl iron powder in China, it has significant advantages in core technology + cost + customers. Two wheel powder drive creates three-dimensional competitiveness. At the same time, military microwave absorbing materials, composite soft magnetic powder and coarse powder are expected to open new growth space. Benefiting from the transmission of automotive electronics prosperity and the improvement of product penetration, the expansion project releases new capacity at the end of the year, and the revenue and profit are expected to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 406 / 535 / 676 million yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 90 / 114 / 151 million yuan respectively, and the target price in 2022 will be 45.14-51.79 yuan / share. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of demand fluctuation, the risk of project construction falling short of expectations, the risk of raw material fluctuation, the risk of low proportion of carbonyl iron powder in metallurgical parts, the risk of high customer concentration, the risk of unsustainable government subsidies, the risk of inventory impairment, and the business risk caused by Sino US trade friction
