\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
Core view
Event: the company announced in its annual report for 2021 that it realized an operating revenue of 21.585 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 16.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 703 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.16%.
In 2021, "electric appliances + cookware" dual engine driven steady growth in domestic sales and brilliant performance in export business. By category, the company achieved revenue of 6.702 billion yuan and 14.641 billion yuan for cooking utensils and electrical appliances in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 22% and 13%. The "one inventory" mode of online channels and DTC direct marketing have achieved remarkable results, and the rapid growth of new products such as integrated stoves and clean appliances has also contributed. By region, the company achieved domestic sales and export sales revenue of 14.26 billion yuan and 7.326 billion yuan respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and 28%. The strong growth of export revenue is mainly due to the continuous transfer of orders from SEB group to the company. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.862 billion yuan by selling goods to SEB, a year-on-year increase of 26%, contributing about 94% of export revenue, of which Q4 increased by about 2.1% year-on-year; According to the announcement of related party transactions, in 2022q1, the revenue from selling goods to SEB increased by about 1.6%. The company expects that the annual related party transaction volume in 2022 will reach 7.554 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the export business is expected to grow steadily.
Rising raw material and shipping prices put pressure on the profitability of 2021q4. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin and parent net profit margin were 23.00% and 9.01% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 3PCT (excluding the impact of freight reclassification, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.4pct) and 1PCT. The rise in the price of bulk raw materials and the rise in international logistics prices put pressure on the profitability. 2021q4 achieved a gross profit margin of 15.42% and a net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 11.87%, with a year-on-year decrease of about 3PCT under comparable standards. The price of raw materials is still high, the cost pressure continues, and there is still room for improvement in its profitability in the future.
Category expansion meets subdivision needs, multi-channel layout seizes growth opportunities. On the product side, the company continues to tap the subdivided needs under different scenarios. In 2021, the company launched new products such as titanium real stainless frying pan, far-infrared rice cooker and suction drag integrated hand-free vacuum cleaner. In the future, the differentiated product innovation strategy will continue to be promoted, and the category expansion is expected to promote the steady growth of the company's domestic sales business. Channel side, Kwai, according to the change of consumption scenario, guide the layout optimization of the channel, push forward the "tiktok" mode of the electricity supplier, and actively expand the emerging channels such as jitter, fast hand, and build new growth points. Offline give play to the differentiation of medium and high-end products and the stability of agents, focus on the sinking of third and fourth tier channels, meet broader consumer demand with multi-channel matrix, and grasp growth opportunities with multi-channel layout.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The assumption of gross profit margin for domestic and export sales is appropriately lowered. It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 2.234/24.27/2.615 billion respectively (previously predicted to be 2.317/2.504 billion respectively in 20222023). According to the valuation of 21 times the P / E ratio in 2022 given by the comparable company, the corresponding target price is 58.02 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The growth of group orders was lower than expected; Intensified price competition in the industry; Risk profit forecast and investment suggestions of sharp rise in raw material prices
