\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 850 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) )
The company issued the annual report of 2021, and the profit increased significantly; The company has a positive capacity expansion, leading technology and cost advantages, and a solid leading position; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the profit increased significantly by 203% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual revenue was 4.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.06%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 542 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.19%; Deduct non-profit of RMB 515 million, with a year-on-year increase of 218.40%; The revenue of 2021q4 was 1.480 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.66% and a month on month increase of 24.95%; The profit was 167 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.15% and a month on month increase of 7.07%. The company's performance is in line with expectations.
Profitability is basically stable: in 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 26.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 12.21%, a year-on-year increase of 3.28 percentage points. The company is expected to further reduce the cost through technical optimization and equipment renewal. At the same time, with the further improvement of capacity utilization and yield, it is also expected to contribute to the cost reduction.
The production capacity layout expanded rapidly and grew together with key customers: the company has established stable and long-term strategic cooperative relations with China's leading manufacturers such as catl, China Innovation airlines, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , honeycomb energy and international well-known power battery and automobile manufacturing enterprises such as LG, Panasonic, Tesla, northvolt and Samsung. The company accelerates the construction progress of production capacity in Yibin, Huizhou, Europe, Germany, Sweden and Hungary. The production capacity expansion is expected to form an effective matching for the rapidly growing demand of customers and help to achieve common growth with customers.
4680 battery is expected to open a new space for the growth of structural parts: the capacity and output power of 4680 battery are better than 2170 battery, which is expected to become an important industrialization direction, and the technical barrier of structural parts is also higher than 2170 battery. The company has a leading layout and has a production capacity of 4680 battery structural parts, which is expected to benefit from the new space brought by the industrial trend.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's annual report and the industry situation, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 4.81/7.45/9.84 yuan (the original prediction from 2022 to 2023 was 3.69/5.38 yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 30.7/19.8/15.0 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
Price competition exceeds expectations; Risk of market share decline; Risk of customer concentration; Industrial policies fail to meet expectations; The downstream demand of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
