Event:
On April 1, 2022, the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization issued by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development was officially implemented on April 1; At the end of last month, the SPE of the European Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Association issued raising solar amplification for the EU’s energy independence, raising the European installed capacity forecast. comment:
Building carbon emission reduction is imperative
The carbon emission in the whole process of construction is close to 40% of China’s total carbon emission. The realization of carbon emission reduction in the construction industry plays an important role in achieving the “3060” double carbon goal. The Specifications issued this time are mandatory engineering construction specifications, and the current engineering construction standards shall be subject to the provisions of the Specifications issued this time. From April 1, 2022, the Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) system must be designed and built simultaneously for new buildings. Meanwhile, the carbon emission intensity of new residential and public buildings shall be reduced by an average of 40% based on the energy-saving design standards implemented in 2016, and the carbon emission intensity shall be reduced by an average of more than 7kgco2 / (M2 · a).
Europe significantly raised PV installation expectations
Affected by the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine and inflation, European commodity and energy prices have risen sharply, and many countries rely on Russia to import coal, oil and natural gas. Therefore, the food and energy security of the EU are directly threatened. In order to seek energy independence, the European Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Association SPE announced that it would raise the PV installation expectation from 2022 to 2025 to 39, 59, 83 and 112gw, 30%, 55%, 84% and 124% respectively compared with 30, 38, 45 and 50gw in the original scenario. However, due to the limited land resources in Europe and the long-term dependence on imports of photovoltaic industry in Europe, the cost competitiveness is insufficient. We predict that the long-term dependence on imports in Europe will continue, and higher module premium will be tolerated.
Distributed photovoltaic ushers in a period of rapid development
The high growth of distributed photovoltaic has begun to take shape. In 2021, China’s distributed installed capacity increased by 29gw (YoY, + 87%), of which household consumption increased by 21.5gw (YoY, + 112.9%). In terms of BIPV alone, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) roof area is about 30 billion square meters. Assuming that roofs meeting BIPV conditions account for 15-20%, the stock market is about 606808gw, while China’s installed photovoltaic stock is 306gw at the end of 2021. It can be seen that the potential market of BIPV is huge, and distribution ushers in another growth point after the promotion of the whole county. At the same time, the value of China’s photovoltaic industry chain accounts for about 80% of the world, and 80% of European Photovoltaic Modules depend on imports.
Investment advice
This year, China’s export demand for photovoltaic modules will be greatly stimulated. When energy security is in crisis, EU module imports will accept a higher premium, and distributed photovoltaic ushers in the blue ocean market. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) .
Risk tips
Silicon material prices remained high and the policy promotion speed was lower than expected
