Data this week: new energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another, and the price of raw materials has risen
New energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another, and the cost pressure is gradually transmitted to the terminal. This week, car companies such as krypton, SAIC passenger cars and lantu automobile announced a new round of price increases, and the cost pressure was gradually transmitted to the terminal.
Raw material prices rose and fell this week. The average prices of cold-rolled sheet, hot-rolled coil, aluminum, copper, natural rubber and polypropylene, the main raw materials of automobile and supply chain, were + 0%, + 1.8%, - 1.2%, - 0.1%, + 1.0%, - 2.2% month on month, respectively; Year on year + 3.0%, - 0.6%, + 31.2%, + 12.1%, - 3.0%, - 2.5% respectively. The average price in March was + 1.3%, + 3.1%, - 1.1%, + 2.5%, - 4.7% and + 4.0% month on month respectively.
This week's view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: this year is a big year for the new product cycle of new energy vehicle enterprises, and the rapid growth of sales is driven by the great changes in the supply side. In March, the delivery volume of key new energy vehicle enterprises was released, and the performance was significantly stronger than that of the industry as a whole, mainly due to the strong orders on hand, which promoted the acceleration of stock delivery. The terminal demand of passenger cars fluctuated due to the impact of the epidemic, and the price rise of raw materials gradually transmitted to the terminal. The average daily wholesale of passenger cars in the first four weeks of March was - 18.6% year-on-year. Demand differentiation is obvious: 1) independent
Joint venture: in the first four weeks of March, the independent daily average was + 6.0% year-on-year, and the joint venture daily average was - 22.2% year-on-year; 2) New energy fuel. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high in February, reaching 21.8%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.4pct. We expect passenger car sales to recover after the epidemic eases. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights - [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, China's medium and large displacement motorcycles sold 23000 in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.3% and a month on month increase of - 6.0%. From January to February, 48000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.9%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall weaker than the market, led by the passenger car sector
This week, the A-share auto sector fell 0.4% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 23rd in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (up 2.9%). Among the segments, passenger cars and buses rose by 1.5% and 0.1% respectively; Trucks, auto services, spare parts and other delivery equipment fell by 1.3%, 1.4%, 1.8% and 2.6% respectively.
Risk tips
Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; Fluctuations in raw material costs exceed expectations; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected; Automobile export sales were lower than expected.
