The superposition of epidemic control in the off-season of coal consumption suppresses downstream demand, and the short-term upward driving force of power coal price is insufficient. As of April 2, the pithead price of Shaanxi Yulin power lump coal (q6000) was 1220.0 yuan / ton, up 10.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 605.0 yuan / ton on a year-on-year basis; The pit mouth price of sticky coal (including tax) (q5500) in the southern suburb of Datong was 1060.0 yuan / ton, down 50.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, up 495.0 yuan / ton over the same period last year; Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large clean coal truck sector price (q5500) was 951.0 yuan / ton, down 41.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, up 432.0 yuan / ton over the same period last year.
Port prices fell and the mood of transportation was weak. The number of trains arriving at Huangdao port this week was 626.6% lower than that of Huangdao port this week; Qinhuangdao Port handled 523000 tons, a decrease of 0.95% on a weekly basis. As of March 31, the inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Caofeidian port and east port of Jingtang Port) was 12.43 million tons (an increase of 130000 tons on a weekly basis), the number of anchorage ships was 109.0 (a decrease of 19.00 on a weekly basis), and the cargo ship ratio (inventory to ship ratio) was 11.4 (an increase of 2.72 on a weekly basis). In the off-season background, the terminal wait-and-see mood is getting stronger and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak.
As the weather warmed up, all provinces entered the stage of replenishment. As of March 31, the coal inventory of eight coastal provinces was 27.702 million tons, with a week on week increase of 1.261 million tons (a week on week increase of 4.77%), the daily consumption was 1.801 million tons, the week on week increase of 70000 tons / day (a week on week increase of 0.39%), the available days were 15.4 days, and the week on week increase of 0.70%. As of April 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao port power coal (q5500) produced in Shanxi was 900.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. International coal price: as of March 30, the FOB spot price of Newcastle newc5500 kcal thermal coal was US $200.00/ton, down US $0.05/ton on a weekly basis; The spot price of ara6000 kcal thermal coal was 288.75 US dollars / ton, down 6.25 US dollars / ton on a weekly basis; Richard RB's FOB spot price of thermal coal was US $225.00/t, down US $11.45/t on a weekly basis. As of April 1, the active contract of thermal coal futures fell by 56.4 yuan / ton to 809.2 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week, and the futures discount was 483.8 yuan / ton. China's coal inventory has entered the upward stage; There are differences in the supply and demand of international thermal coal, and the prices rise and fall with each other. It operates stably in a rational price range.
Coke: the resumption of production of steel mills is expected to increase, and the market will rise steadily in the later stage. As of April 1, 2022, Fenwei CCI Luliang quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3360 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis, with a month on month increase of 13.51% and a year-on-year increase of 81.62%. Port index: CCI Rizhao quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3700 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, 9.47% on a monthly basis and 76.19% on a year-on-year basis. Recently, there have been frequent lenient policies at the macro level, the market sentiment has been boosted, and the expectation for the resumption of production of downstream steel enterprises has been enhanced. Steel mills in Hebei have increased procurement and actively replenished warehouses. The supply and demand of coke industry is optimistic in the future.
Coking coal: the market is weak under the impact of the epidemic. As of April 2, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index was 3245 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 482 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index was 2940 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis and increased by 486 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Lingshi fat coal index was 2850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 450 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Puxian 1 / 3 coke index was 2420 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis and increased by 220 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. Recently, market sentiment has improved, auction transactions have risen, coking coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and some coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have rebounded.
We believe that at present, we are in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. Recently, a number of coal enterprises have announced their annual reports and dividend plans for 2021. The revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have increased significantly, and the cash flow situation is good. Leading enterprises have announced high proportion dividend plans to give back to shareholders. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the short-term disturbance factors of thermal coal have increased, and the price has returned to the rational range. However, the most important coal price inhibition factors (consumption off-season and policy factors) belong to the normal industry operation cycle and reasonable policy control, which do not exceed the expected range. The tight logic of supply and demand in the annual dimension has not changed, and the pressure on coal supply in summer has not decreased; The overall supply and demand of the iron and steel, coke and coking coal industry chain is tight, the downstream resumption of work and production is expected to increase, the demand increases, the upstream supply is limited, the overseas coking coal price hangs upside down, and the price is expected to remain high throughout the year. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is a reasonable stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector. Investment rating: we continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Risk factors: coal mine safety production accidents in key companies; Downstream energy and power consumption departments continue to limit production on a large scale; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
