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This week’s special research: the manufacturing and application of hydrogen energy involves many electrochemical reactions, which requires high stability of reaction environment and operation environment, driving the strong demand for test system. The market-oriented application of PEM at hydrogen production end is accelerated, and the demand for electrolytic cell test equipment is strong; The reliability requirements of hydrogen end fuel cells are high, and the market scale of test equipment is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2025. Under the background of the rapid increase of downstream demand, the delivery time and cost performance have accelerated the catch-up of domestic hydrogen energy testing equipment manufacturers. According to trendbank data, Chinese fuel cell testing equipment enterprises account for about 70% of the market in 2021h1, of which Qunyi energy and Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) total account for more than 50%. In terms of investment, it is recommended to lay out fuel cell test equipment and move from laboratory to production line Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) ; Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , with the ability of integrated layout from fuel cell manufacturing to test equipment.
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment has a resonance in the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
For power exchange, the operation space of power exchange station is expected to reach 135755 billion yuan in 2025. The operation of power exchange station is the link with the largest market space in the field of power exchange, and it is optimistic about the operation enterprises of power exchange station;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable to the implementation. Power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, the strong is always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
Under the dual carbon target, the policy continues to promote the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry. Hydrogen energy is rich in sources and widely used. It has the characteristics of green and low-carbon. It is recognized as one of the important carriers of energy transformation and development in the world, and it is also an important way to achieve the goal of double carbon. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, China’s hydrogen demand will reach 35 million tons in 2030, accounting for 5% of the terminal energy system; By 2050, the demand will be close to 60 million tons, accounting for 10% of the terminal energy system.
Since 2020, the central and local governments have frequently issued policies and documents related to hydrogen energy, such as plans and implementation plans, to speed up the process of hydrogen energy industrialization. According to the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), by 2025, China will have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles and 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year of hydrogen production from renewable energy, and the hydrogen energy industry will enter a stage of rapid development.
The manufacture and application of hydrogen energy involves many electrochemical reactions, which requires high stability of reaction environment and operation environment, driving the strong demand of test system.
PEM hydrogen production technology has high current density, high conversion efficiency, flexible operation and accelerated market-oriented application. Electrolytic water is the main way of hydrogen production in the future because of its high purity, less impurity gas and easy combination with renewable energy. According to the white paper on China’s hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry (2020), the proportion of hydrogen production from electrolytic water will increase from less than 2% in 2020 to 10% in 2030, thus driving the strong demand for electrolytic equipment and related testing equipment. From the perspective of technical path, hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is mainly divided into awe (hydrogen production from alkaline electrolyzed water), PEM (hydrogen production from electrolyzed water by proton exchange membrane), AEM (hydrogen production from electrolyzed water by solid polymer anion exchange membrane) and SOE (hydrogen production from electrolyzed water by solid oxide). Among them, PEM technology has high current density, small electrolytic cell volume, flexible operation and is conducive to rapid load change, which is well matched with wind power and photovoltaic, It is the mainstream technology of the key layout of enterprises.
PEM cell test involves the monitoring of pure water conductivity, real-time volt ampere characteristics, service life, gas production efficiency, dynamic response and other indicators. It is an important way to ensure the stable operation of the cell.
The reliability requirements of hydrogen end fuel cells are high, and the market scale of test equipment is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2025. With the rapid explosion of downstream demand, the demand of the fuel cell industry also began to diversify and materialize. Application enterprises began to pay more attention to the performance of fuel cell subsystems (such as proton exchange membrane and gas diffusion layer), cell impedance analysis and activation test of mass production line, so as to control the reliability of fuel cells from all links and dimensions, accelerate the industrialization progress, and increase the demand for relevant test equipment. At present, fuel cell test equipment mainly includes fuel cell engine test system, fuel cell stack test system, fuel cell parts test equipment, on-board hydrogen storage system test equipment, etc. According to the research data of trendbank, the market scale of fuel cell test equipment in China is about 1 billion yuan in 2021h1, and it is expected that the market scale will exceed 2 billion yuan in 2025.
Risk tips
New technology development is less than expected
Less than expected overseas market expansion
Overseas recovery is less than expected, and China’s demand is less than expected
Price fluctuation of raw materials
Blocked parts supply
Product and technology iterations and upgrades are less than expected
The production expansion of customers is less than expected
The progress of hjt technology is less than expected.
