Key investment points
[NEA: the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 12.2% in 2022, and vigorously develop large-scale scenery bases] on March 29, the NEA issued the guiding opinions on energy work in 2022, which mentioned the following key objectives and requirements: the proportion of coal consumption will decline steadily, and the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption will increase to about 17.3%, About 180 billion kwh of new electricity was replaced, and the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the power consumption of the whole society reached about 12.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over 2021. Increase efforts to plan and build a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale scenery base, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around it, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines.
[global installed capacity of power batteries from January to February: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranked first, and Byd Company Limited(002594) beat Panasonic to rank third] on April 1, SNE research released the data of global power batteries from January to February 2022. The total installed capacity of lithium batteries from January to February was 53.5gwh, an increase of 107% year-on-year. No. 1: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , 18.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 159% and a market share of 34.4% (+ 6.9pct); No. 2: LG energy solution, 7.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 38% and a market share of 13.8% (- 6.9pct); No. 3: Byd Company Limited(002594) , 6.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 257% and a market share of 11.9% (+ 5.0pct). No. 4: Panasonic, 5.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, accounting for 10.8% (- 6.6pct). The global market share of Chinese lithium battery enterprises continues to expand, suppressing Japanese and Korean enterprises.
[cobalt lithium market tends to be stable] [cobalt] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 1, the mainstream quotation of electrolytic cobalt in China was 555000575000 yuan / ton, and the average price decreased by 4000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Cobalt sulfate was reported at 11850012000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 0700 yuan / ton compared with last week. Co3O4 was reported at 439445000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15000 yuan / ton lower than last week. In terms of cobalt, the arrival of intermediate products in Hong Kong improved in March and April, and the raw materials of smelters were relatively sufficient. Due to the sporadic influence of downstream procurement in recent weeks, cobalt salt plants accumulated reserves. In the downstream, due to the planned reduction of some precursor manufacturers, the cobalt salt inventory consumption is low, the inventory is sufficient, and the purchase demand is weak. It is expected that in the first ten days of April, the supply exceeds the demand, the capital pressure and bearish negative sentiment of the small cobalt salt plant choose to sell at a low price, which will drive the cobalt salt market to begin to decline. [lithium] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 1, the quotation of metal lithium was 3.104-3.1975 million yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 12000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The mainstream price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 499 Zhongrun Resources Investment Corporation(000506) 000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 0500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) is 488000495000 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as that of last week. In terms of lithium, the game mood in all links of the industrial chain is strong. Some traders continue to reduce prices and sell goods, superimposing the phenomenon of selling inventory in some material factories. In the future, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to maintain stability due to the easing of market spot tension and weak demand. In terms of lithium hydroxide, the market tension has eased slightly, and the price of lithium hydroxide will also stabilize under the condition of small expected demand in the future. [ternary materials] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 1, the price of ternary materials (type 523) was 3675374400 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The quotation of ternary precursor (type 523) is 153 Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) 500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The price of lithium salt and precursor at the cost side remained basically stable, and the overall manufacturing cost remained stable. On the supply side, it basically follows the order situation. The operation of medium and low nickel is better, and the 8 series is slightly weakened. On the demand side, due to the impact of nickel price and the general rise of terminal vehicle price, the current demand for medium and low nickel is relatively stable, and the demand for high nickel is weak. With the expected cost stabilizing in the future, the price of ternary materials may continue to maintain stability. [lithium iron phosphate cathode] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 1, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 1 Qingdao Victall Railway Co.Ltd(605001) 65000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 0700 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 1485152500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as last week. It’s highly recommended to focus on: ‘s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 35.
[the epidemic disrupted the pace of the photovoltaic supply chain and the price was deadlocked before the end of the month] according to pvinfolink data, on March 30, the mainstream quotation of [silicon material] polysilicon dense material was 245000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 0.8% compared with last week. Although the new production capacity of silicon material has been put into operation one after another, due to the limited and slow growth of the actual supply output of silicon material, and the recent separate line maintenance of silicon material enterprises, which has affected the output to varying degrees, if the production level of crystal drawing remains stable or even slightly increased, the supply-demand relationship between silicon material supply and crystal drawing material demand in April is still tight, and the silicon material price is expected to remain strong. [silicon chip] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal silicon chip is 6.700 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 8.850 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafer has maintained a stable trend, but the regions of crystal pulling production are relatively concentrated. The recent outbreak of the epidemic and the upgrading of the degree of control in many places in China have indeed caused considerable trouble to the efficiency of goods delivery and logistics. [cell] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc cell is 1.140 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week.
The mainstream quotation of 210mm single crystal perc battery is 1.150 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. Due to the limited acceptance of the downstream, the basic price of battery remains stable at the level of last week. [components] the mainstream quotation of 365375 / 440450w single crystal single glass perc components is 1.870 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week.
The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal single glass perc module is 1.890 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. This week, the components are still squeezed by the terminal acceptance and the rise of the supply chain, and there are few orders in fact. On March 29, the United States decided to file an anti circumvention case, and the delivery of orders from the United States in April was immediately uncertain, which was even worse for the Southeast Asian production capacity that had been trapped by wro and the operating rate was low. Manufacturers planned to reduce production and suspend production one after another, and the operating rate in Southeast Asia reached about 20-50% in April. Some orders will be executed in the short term, and the subsequent Southeast Asian manufacturers will arrange to transfer orders to other regions, such as Europe, Canada and so on. [photovoltaic glass] the mainstream price of 3.2mm coating is reported as 26.0 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The mainstream quotation of 2.0mm coating is 20.0 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as last week. Key recommendations focus on the following: ‘ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) \ , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the industry demand, and other unexpected explosion risks.
