Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index rose. From March 28, 2022 to April 1, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, and the light industry manufacturing index rose 0.33%, ranking 19th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: household light industry (+ 1.73%), papermaking (+ 0.08%), packaging and printing (- 0.82%).
Furniture: there are many early corrections in the sector, suggesting opportunities for valuation and repair in the household sector. In terms of domestic sales of furniture, 1) the marginal relaxation trend of real estate policy is obvious. Many places relax the real estate policy by reducing the purchase qualification requirements, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing the loan requirements, reducing the housing loan interest rate and so on. Since the beginning of 2022, more than 60 cities have issued stable real estate policies, and China's stable growth expectation remains unchanged to ensure reasonable housing demand on the demand side; 2) The current round of epidemic may have a certain impact on the sales performance of household enterprises in March 2022, but the lagging demand and the demand for product upgrading stimulated by home isolation are expected to be fully released from April to may 2022, and the impact on the annual performance is relatively limited. It is expected to further improve the concentration of small and medium-sized brands affected by the epidemic, and further accelerate the release of small and medium-sized brands. In the follow-up, we believe that under the steady growth, the marginal easing of real estate policy is expected to increase, the proportion of stock houses continues to increase, contributing to the stable demand, and the leading enterprises are expected to continuously improve the market share by virtue of their own alpha. From 2022 / 1 / 1 to 2022 / 4 / 1, the household sector fell by 17.5%. The valuations of leading companies are below a standard deviation in the past five years, and there is great room for repair. Continue to recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] management improvement and retail is expected to accelerate under the overall strategy, and [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] whose leading position of overall high growth is constantly consolidated, the pioneer of retail reform, the increasingly clear route of big home [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], the [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] which accelerates the expansion of independent brands, and the functional sofa leader [Minhua holding] with low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) 。 In terms of export, we recommend [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ] where the dilemma can be reversed and the scarcity of us production capacity layout can be realized gradually under anti-dumping. We suggest paying attention to [ Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) ] where production capacity release drives high income growth and strong bargaining power.
E-cigarette: implement supporting measures to ensure the smooth transition of the industry and be optimistic about the orderly development of the e-cigarette industry. 1) The administrative measures for electronic cigarettes issued by the state tobacco monopoly administration will be officially implemented from May 1. On March 29, 2022, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration said that during the transition period of policy implementation, it is studying relevant supporting measures to ensure the effective implementation of the administrative measures. 2) On March 31, 2022, the project progress of the second exposure draft of the national standard of electronic cigarette was updated from the review stage to being approved, and the voting support rate exceeded 92.59%. 3) The office of healthy China action Promotion Committee issued the key points of healthy China action in 2022, including the formulation of a series of supporting policies such as national standards and management measures for e-cigarettes. 4) Huizhou, Guangdong and Xiamen, Fujian were selected as pilot cities for e-cigarette supervision. The pilot time of Huizhou is from April 1 to June 30. All e-cigarette flavor products of Yueke, yooz and Ono brands can be purchased and sold from local tobacco companies. 5) Relevant local laws and regulations were gradually implemented, and Gansu Province revised and adopted several provisions on tobacco monopoly in Gansu Province, including the management of e-cigarettes. 6) According to media reports, on April 1, 2022, the State Administration of tobacco held a promotion meeting on e-cigarette management, which proposed that: all provinces should establish e-cigarette supervision offices; Issue of e-cigarette retail license on June 1, 2022; The original fruit flavor inventory of retail stores can be sold until September 30. We believe that China's e-cigarette regulation has accelerated significantly, the industry continues to move towards standardized development, strict restrictions on taste and channels, raise the entry threshold of the industry, and continue to recommend [smore international] with high technical barriers; It is recommended to focus on brand and user volume advantage, which is expected to be extended, and closely cooperate with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) with high valuation.
Papermaking: the first is [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]. The price of wood pulp is high, the price of cultural paper is rising, and the profitability of head paper enterprises is gradually restored. In terms of price, as of April 1, 2022, the price of wood pulp was 6979.5 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 81 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of carton board paper is 4836 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3 yuan / ton; The price of corrugated paper was 3787.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 16 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard was 6385 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard paper was 5080 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The price of double copper paper was 5680 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper was 6225 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of external price, Brazil Suzano announced that the price of staple fiber pulp exported to China will be increased by US $100 / ton to US $780 / ton from April 1, 2022. The high cost of pulp promotes the rise of cultural paper, the impact of double reduction and the new capacity in 2021q4 is gradually digested, and the profitability of cultural paper is expected to hit the bottom. It is recommended that [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]: the valuation has a margin of safety, the forest area of Laos base continues to grow, and the cost advantage and risk resistance are improved under the integration of forest, pulp and paper.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc.
