Industry view 1 this week: the United States announced the release plan of strategic oil reserves, and it is suggested to pay attention to the upward price of chemicals
According to China Central Television News, on March 30 local time, US President Biden announced that he would release 1 million barrels of oil a day and 180 million barrels a day from the US strategic oil reserve in the next six months to cope with the current situation of shortage of supply and high oil prices, which will be the largest release plan of strategic oil reserve in the history of the United States. According to the statement issued by the 27th OPEC ministerial meeting, the participating oil producing countries increased their monthly total production in May by 432000 barrels per day. According to wind data, as of March 31, the settlement prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures were reported at US $107.91 and US $100.28/barrel respectively, down 4.88% and 6.99% respectively compared with March 30. We calculate the historical quantile of the current price of chemical products since 2019 (April 1) and the rise and fall range of the current price compared with the lowest price since September 2021. It is found that most of the chemical products in agrochemical, chlor alkali, photovoltaic lithium battery, petrochemical and other sectors are in the historical quantile of more than 90%, and most of the products have a large increase compared with the lowest price. In view of the large number of external uncertainties, it is expected that the prices of most chemicals may remain stable and strong in the short term. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the impact of changes in market supply, downstream market demand and market atmosphere.
Industry view 2 this week: soda ash goes to the warehouse obviously, and the price of acetic acid rises sharply
Soda ash: the market price of soda ash in China rose slightly this week (March 28 – April 1). According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 31, the average market prices of light and heavy soda ash were 2556 and 2737 yuan / ton respectively; The total inventory was 1.0812 million tons, down 12.84% from last week. Acetic acid: the price of acetic acid continued to rise this week (March 21-25). According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 1, the average market price of acetic acid was 4945 yuan / ton, up 5.13% from March 25; Jiantao originally planned to overhaul on March 22, which is expected to be postponed to April; The maintenance of Huayi plant in Guangxi was postponed to early April; Nanjing Yangzi plant was overhauled for 70 days. As of April 1, acetic acid inventory was 138500 tons, down 1.77% from last week, and the overall acetic acid market inventory was at a medium low level.
Industry news this week: BASF may close the world’s largest chemical base due to reduced natural gas supply
[energy] BASF said that if the natural gas supplied to Ludwigshafen base in Germany is reduced to less than half of the current demand, the operation of the world’s largest integrated chemical production base will be completely stopped. [ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] Yantai key project Wanhua new materials low carbon industry project (phase I) and Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) new materials were launched. Beneficiary objects: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) . [nylon industry] the hexamethylene diamine plant of Tianchen Qixiang nylon new material project was successfully started. Beneficiary object: China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) .
Beneficial object
[leading white horse in chemical industry] Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , etc; [soda ash] Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shuanghuan technology, Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , etc; [acetic acid] Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co.Ltd(600746) , Shanghai Huayi Group Corporation Limited(600623) ; [fluorochemical] China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) , Dongyue Group, etc; [Agrochemical & phosphorus chemical industry] Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) , Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , etc; [silicon] Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , [chemical fiber industry] Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , etc.
Risk tip: oil prices continue to rise sharply; Weak downstream demand; Macroeconomic downturn.
