Key investment points
Performance of this week’s section: the overall market composite index rose slightly this week (March 28 – April 2). The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 328272, up 2.19% this week, the Shenzhen cost index rose 1.29%, the small and medium-sized board 100 index rose 0.99%, and the basic chemical industry sector rose slightly, 0.48%. Chemical stocks rose slightly this week. Among the stocks with the top gaingaingaingaingaingaingaingainamong the top gaingaingainamong the top gaingaingaingaingaingaingainamong the top gaingaingaingaingainamong the top ones are Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) \ . Judging from the rise of the overall chemical sector, the growth rate of the industry is developing well. The market demand for titanium dioxide increased rapidly. In response to the double carbon policy, the company invested 10 billion to enter the lithium iron phosphate industry, making Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) rise in the limit. The annual report is prepared, and “high delivery and transfer” promotes the rise of Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) share price.
Crude oil market dynamics this week: the decline of U.S. crude oil inventory and geopolitical contradiction game, and crude oil prices fluctuated and fell. Ice oil distribution closed at US $104.39/barrel (Mom – 13.48%); WTI crude oil closed at US $99.27/barrel (Mom – 12.84%). Tracking of key chemicals: among the chemicals we focus on this week, nitric acid (+ 11.36%), liquid chlorine (+ 10.03%), hydrofluoric acid (+ 5.42%), cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (+ 5.42%), bisphenol A (+ 4.75%) led the price increase.
The downstream application scenarios are extensive, and the boom of BDO industrial chain continues: there are many extended products of BDO industrial chain. BDO can produce THF, PBT, GBL, polyurethane resin, coating, plasticizer and other products, which are widely used in medicine, chemical industry, textile, papermaking, automobile, daily chemical industry and other fields. With abundant downstream application scenarios, limited overall operating rate of the industry and tight supply and demand, the landscape of BDO industrial chain continues.
Main lines of Chemical Investment: (1) cyclical growth stocks are expected to improve marginally: since the turning point of Q2 chemical boom in 2020, the prices of some chemicals have risen to historic highs. As the mismatch between supply and demand moves towards balance and superimposes the downward pressure of the economy, the traditional chemical cyclical stocks have made a sharp correction. We believe that we should focus on the industry leaders with continuous production expansion capacity in the 14th five year plan, supplement the price with quantity, especially the high-quality companies that embrace change and look for the second growth curve, which are expected to cross the cycle in the medium and long term. Key recommendations: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , satellite chemistry, China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , lithium iron phosphate industry chain and soda ash industry chain. (2) Focus on high-end carbon, synthetic materials, biodegradable materials and other industries. Key recommendations: Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . (3) For the pesticide industry chain entering the business cycle, it is recommended to: Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) .
Risk warning: crude oil supply fluctuates sharply; The situation of trade war worsened; The risk of large exchange rate fluctuations; The risk of falling downstream demand.
