Zhou viewpoint: 1) household: on March 29, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that the current international situation is becoming more complex and severe, and China’s development is facing new challenges, emphasizing the need to put steady growth in a more prominent position. At the end of last year, the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee put forward the work goal of “supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”. In March, affected by the weak real estate sales and the spread of the epidemic in many parts of the country, the valuation of the home sector fell. As of April 1, the valuation of the home industry index pe-ttm fell to 21.7, at the bottom of the historical valuation in the past five years. We believe that under the background of increasing downward pressure on China’s economy, the improvement of policy expectations is expected to boost the repair of sector valuation. We suggest paying attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (22-year PE 22x), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (22-year PE 19x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year PE 12x), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (22-year PE 13X) and Minhua Holdings (22-year PE 11x). 2) Papermaking: Recently, the box board corrugated paper faucet was shut down and production was limited, and the product price was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. The cultural paper and white cardboard faucet planned to increase the price by 300 yuan / ton in April. The paper sector suggests to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (22 years PE 9x) and Shanying paper (22 years PE 6x). 3) Packaging and printing & new tobacco: the paper packaging sector is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (22-year PE 15x), pay attention to the subsequent month on month improvement of fundamentals & the valuation is at the bottom of history, and the new tobacco sector is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (22-year PE 16x). 4) Household personal consumption: continue to be optimistic about Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (22-year PE 25X). The barriers of traditional core business channels are stable & the expectation is improved month on month. The new business model is gradually mature and the profitability is expected to gradually rise in the future.
The light industry manufacturing sector performed slightly worse than the market last week (March 28-April 1, 2022). Last week, the light industry manufacturing industry index rose 0.3%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.4%. The overall performance was inferior to the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the packaging and printing industry index is – 0.8%, the entertainment industry index is – 1.2%, the household goods industry index is + 1.7%, and the paper industry index is + 0.1%.? Household: the price of raw materials and sea freight fell last week. From January to February, the income of furniture manufacturing industry above Designated Size of industrial enterprises increased by 6.9% year-on-year, which is better than the performance of – 6% in the first two months of social furniture, further indicating that the head concentration effect appears under the background of industry boom adjustment. In the past week as of April 2, 2022, in terms of chemical raw materials, the market prices of TDI, MDI and polyether were – 1.1%, – 2.6% and – 2.2% respectively. In terms of hardware raw materials, copper prices were + 0.2% month on month (MOM) last week. The high level of sea freight dropped. Last week, CCFI: the sea freight of the US west route was – 3.3% higher than that of last week.
Papermaking: the price of paper and futures pulp remained stable last week. The past week as of April 2, 2022: the price of double adhesive tape, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 7000 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); Price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6410 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6520 yuan / ton (unchanged); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). Dongguan Jiulong Dilong Dongguan Jiulong corrugated paper 4390 yuan / ton (unchanged), kraft carton board 4730 yuan / ton (unchanged). In terms of cost, as of April 2, 2022, the purchase price of Tianjin Jiulong waste yellow paperboard was 2190 yuan / ton (unchanged), the price of Brazilian goldfish broad-leaved pulp was 780 US dollars / ton (up 100 yuan / ton), the price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp was 990 US dollars / ton (unchanged), and the price of pulp futures was 6776 yuan / ton, a month on week increase of – 0.09%.
Packaging: the price of tinsector increased slightly and the price of aluminum decreased slightly. As of last week, Dec. 2, 2020, Tianjin Furen Railway The price of 18 900 tinsector coil is 8500 yuan / ton (up 50 yuan / ton), A00 aluminum is 22790 yuan / ton (down 172 yuan / ton), and the price decreases slightly.
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs.
