\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 873 Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) )
[key points of investment]
The company’s performance achieved good growth. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 101 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.76%. Including 686 million yuan (+ 31.67%) for gynecology, 202 million yuan (+ 22.42%) for urinary system, 68 million yuan (+ 17.24%) for heat clearing and detoxification and 13 million yuan (+ 85.71%) for other categories.
The company has formed a multi gradient series of products. At present, the company has 32 drug production approvals, including 10 national medical insurance varieties, 1 basic drug catalogue variety, 12 OTC varieties and 12 exclusive varieties. Among them, Kun Tai capsule (Gynecology), ningmo Tai capsule (Mi Niao), Sophora flavescens gel (Gynecology) and other exclusive varieties have achieved the market scale of single product over 100 million. In addition to the above main varieties, the small-scale production and planned production varieties of the company include Tiaojing Huoxue Capsule, Danggui Yixue oral liquid, Longzhang oral liquid, Xinlikang capsule, Xiaoyu Jiangzhi capsule, etc., mostly exclusive varieties and OTC varieties. In addition, the company has 3 traditional Chinese medicine products, including long Cen Shu Shu Shu granule, Ku Er Jie Yin gel and Shu Yu Tong granule, and has completed the clinical phase III trial. It has 445 varieties of Chinese herbal formula granules, and has completed 60 national standard records, and the research and development of classic name products has also achieved initial success.
See the effectiveness of OTC market layout. Less than four years after its opening in 2018, by the end of 2021, the company’s OTC market has covered more than 90000 pharmacies across the country, with a year-on-year increase of 12%;
Covering nearly 800 large and medium-sized mainstream drug chain companies; The unit yield of drug stores increased by 26.4% over 2020. At present, the company’s OTC market accounts for about 30%, and the OTC market share is expected to increase to 50% in the next few years. At the same time, the company has increased investment in Internet channels and strives to achieve more than 50% growth in OTC market sales in 2022 through the creation of “Heyan” brand.
In 2021, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 79.26%, and the company’s sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate were 48.65%, 13.85% and 1.74% respectively. With the expansion of the company’s market scale, the development of OTC market, the improvement of product and brand awareness, and the strengthening of budget control, the company’s sales expense rate is expected to decrease in the future.
[investment suggestions]
Relying on the rich resources of traditional Chinese medicine in Guizhou Province, the company has basically formed an industrial pattern of proprietary Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, ancient classic prescriptions and shares in small molecular drugs. It has optimized the layout in the subdivided markets such as female youth and health maintenance, male health and reproductive system diseases, and has realized the linkage development pattern of a series of product lines.
The company continued to participate in R & D investment, in-depth layout of new traditional Chinese medicine products covering 1-3 categories of traditional Chinese medicine registration classification, continued to carry out the secondary development of key varieties, completed phase III clinical trials of three innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs, and promoted the modernization of traditional Chinese medicine. The construction of Chinese medicine formula granule and the construction of gel and mixture production line are expected to be put into operation in 2023, which is expected to further enhance the company’s capacity and product line expansion. The clinical efficacy of the original main products will bring a large amount of coverage from clinical end to OTC end. The three-year doubling goal of the company’s equity incentive is expected to be better realized.
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 1.258/16.22/2.083 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 135188/256 million respectively, the EPS will be RMB 0.81/1.13/1.54 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25 / 18 / 13 times respectively. Give “overweight” rating. Profit forecast
[risk tips]
Risk of industrial policy change;
Product R & D risk;
Account period risk of accounts receivable;
