\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Core conclusion
The growth rate of performance is in line with expectations In Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) 21, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%; The equity attributable to the parent shareholders was 106.6 billion yuan, up + 8.6% from the end of the previous year; Weighted average roe10 7%, basically unchanged from the previous year. In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 2.21 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 19.6%. Excluding the impact of other business income, the company’s brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest and investment income accounted for 24.8%, 1.3%, 30.9%, 15.3% and 22.5% respectively.
Investment management business is the largest source of income. The net income from handling fees of asset management and fund management business was 9.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51%. Among them, the net income from fund management business was 8.9 billion yuan, yoy + 67%, and the net income from asset management business (GF asset management) was 1.03 billion yuan, yoy-19%. The total profit contribution of its two public funds is expected to reach 23%, of which the net profit of Guangfa fund is 2.61 billion yuan, yoy + 43%, and the net profit of e fund is 4.53 billion yuan, yoy + 65%. The net profits of Guangfa Xinde and Guangfa Qianhe, the two subsidiaries of the company, were 860 million yuan and 1.23 billion yuan respectively.
The market share of stock trading volume increased, and the scale of financial products sold on a commission basis was higher. The holding scale of securities companies in the third-largest financial market with a year-on-year holding ratio of 36.4% to 36.4% in 202y; The income from selling financial products on a commission basis was 1.09 billion yuan, yoy + 85%, accounting for 14% of the brokerage business. The closing balance of two financial services was 94 billion yuan, yoy + 11.50%, accounting for 5.13% of the market. The year-end balance of stock pledge repurchase was 12.9 billion yuan.
The equity financing business of investment banks has not been resumed, and the bond financing business has been carried out in an orderly manner. There are 27 investment banking projects (22 on GEM), ranking relatively high in the industry. The historical investment banking business contributes between 10% and 15% of GF’s revenue. The investment business fell 8% year-on-year to 7.22 billion yuan in 21 years, which affected the company’s performance to a certain extent.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.271 billion yuan in 22 years, yoy + 22.3%; The current share price corresponds to 1.2 times of Pb in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of investment banking business is less than expected, the risk of market fluctuation and the intensification of industry competition.
