\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the operating revenue was 11.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.07%, of which 2021q4 operating revenue was 4.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.89% and a month on month increase of 37.43%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.228 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.26%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 2.756 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 296.96% and a month on month increase of 160.91%. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 2.907 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 622.76%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 1.479 billion in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 990.76% and a month on month increase of 149.63%. The non recurring profit and loss of the whole year mainly included the profit and loss from changes in fair value caused by Pilbara investment income.
Production and sales increased significantly, and the volume and price of main products increased simultaneously. The revenue of lithium series products was 8.323 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 115.5%, accounting for 74.6% of the total revenue. (1) Volume: in 2021, the production and sales of lithium series products were 89700 tons and 90700 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.23% and + 43.97%. (2) Price: the average price of lithium series products in 2021 was 91700 yuan / ton LCE, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.12%, of which the average prices of 2021h1 and H2 were 72300 yuan / ton LCE and 107800 yuan / ton LCE respectively, with a significant month on month increase. (3) In terms of raw material price: the company's main raw material is underwriting spodumene, and the purchase amount accounts for 41.19% of the total purchase. The average purchase price of 2021h1 and H2 lithium concentrates is $438 and 1045 / ton.
During the period of rapid business expansion, cash flow is supplemented through multiple channels. In 2021, the company's book monetary capital reached 6.33 billion yuan, accounting for 9.88% of the total assets, the net operating cash flow was 2.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 251.1%, and the asset liability ratio was 33%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.06 PCT. In addition, the board of directors of the company plans to request the general meeting of shareholders to adopt the general authorization of "issuing domestic and foreign debt financing instruments" and "issuing additional A shares or H shares of the company (the issuance volume does not exceed 20% of A-Shares or H shares)", supplement cash flow through multiple channels, or provide a source of funds for industrial investment related to upstream and downstream of new energy, or help the implementation of the company's business objectives.
Significantly increase the smelting capacity guidance in 2025 to 300000 tons of LCE. The company has 43000 tons of lithium carbonate, 81000 tons of lithium hydroxide and 2150 tons of metal lithium. Projects under construction include cauchari olaroz lithium salt lake project in Argentina, Sonora lithium clay project, etc. The company plans to form a smelting capacity with a total annual output of 300000 tons of LCE (the previous value is 200000 tons of LCE) in 2025, and form a lithium product supply capacity of no less than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of LCE in the long term.
The resource side is still the source of the company's core competitiveness. At present, the company has globally arranged spodumene projects in Australia, salt lake in Argentina and clay projects in Mexico. At the same time, it has indirectly acquired 50% equity of goulamina spodumene mine in Africa, participated in core and signed lithium concentrate underwriting agreement, increased 100% equity of Mariana project, wholly acquired Sonora equity, acquired 49% equity of Yiliping Salt Lake and 15.48% equity of Jintai potash in China, and deepened the layout of mica resources. Continue to pay attention to the new core changes: the expansion of goulamina production and the change and development of exploration rights and interests of songshugang tantalum niobium mine.
The production capacity of Ganfeng lithium battery, a subsidiary, has been continuously improved, and the commercialization of solid-state batteries has taken the lead. Jiangxi Xinyu's new lithium battery project has been put into operation in January 2022. Meanwhile, the solid-state lithium battery business is the focus of the future development of Ganfeng lithium power battery business. The company has invested and built the first generation solid-state lithium battery R & D pilot production line with an annual output of 300 million watt hours. The first batch of 50 Dongfeng E70 electric vehicles equipped with Ganfeng solid-state batteries have been officially delivered, marking the first shot in the industrialization of solid-state batteries, and the commercialization path of solid-state batteries is becoming more and more clear.
Focus on battery recycling and consolidate the support capacity of key battery raw materials. In 2021, the output of recycling line is considerable, and the yield of energy metals is high. In 2021, the company recovered and treated a total of 25800 tons of retired batteries, batteries, pole pieces and powders, 2700 tons of nickel, cobalt and manganese, 5500 tons of ternary precursors, more than 98% of nickel, cobalt and manganese, 3700 tons of lithium chloride and more than 90% of lithium. The raw material end is bound with batteries and car factories, and the product end increases added value, and is committed to forming an industrial closed loop. The 12000 ton ternary precursor expansion project has been put into trial production. The company expects that by 2023, the processing capacity of lithium iron phosphate will reach 50000 tons and the processing capacity of ternary battery will reach 50000 tons, forming a recycling battery material to produce 5000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate and 20000 tons of ternary precursor. It hopes to become the largest lithium iron phosphate recycling enterprise in China and the top three in the waste battery processing capacity industry.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 430.78, 52.631 and 64.464 billion respectively, and the net profit will be RMB 14.259, 17.536 and 22.932 billion respectively. The corresponding EPS will be RMB 9.92, 12.2 and 15.95/share respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 13, 10.5 and 8.1 times. Maintain the "overweight-a" rating, and the six-month target price is 147 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the demand is less than expected, the lithium price fluctuates sharply, and the project progress is less than expected
