\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event: Byd Company Limited(002594) released the sales data of March 2022: 104900 vehicles were sold in March, with a year-on-year increase of 333%.
Monthly sales exceeded 100000, and fuel vehicles will be discontinued. In March, the company sold 104300 new energy passenger vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 346% and a month on month increase of 19.28%. The monthly sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 100000 for the first time, reaching a record high and amazing performance. Specifically:
1) in March, Han sold 12359 sets, including 10178 Han EVs, with a year-on-year increase of 27.93%. Subsequently, with the listing of 2022 Han EVs, the sales volume is expected to continue to rise; In March, the sales volume of Han DMI was 2181 units, which recovered significantly month on month. At present, Han DMI has opened pre-sale and has excellent cost performance. It is expected to continue to sell well and contribute significant increment after it is officially listed;
2) in March, the sales volume of Qin series was 24797 units, with a month on month increase of 1.2%. Among them, Qin plus DMI and Qin plus ev (E platform 2.0 model) performed well;
3) in March, the sales volume of song series was 26729 units, with a month on month increase of 8.95%, including song plus DMI, song Pro DMI, song Max DMI and song plus ev. We expect that song Pro DMI and song Max DMI are still climbing, and the sales volume is expected to continue to grow in the future.
In addition, according to the company's announcement, the company will stop the production of fuel vehicles from March 2022. In the future, the company will focus on the business of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. We believe that this is not only the company, but also a landmark event in the global automotive industry. In the future, the company is expected to embark on the road of new energy vehicles with Byd Company Limited(002594) characteristics.
The sales volume of yuan plus is nearly 10000, and the pure electric E platform 3.0 has reached a new level. In March, the sales of two models of E platform 3.0: dolphin and yuan plus were 10501 and 9987 respectively, and the sales of dolphin continued to exceed 10000. Yuan plus achieved the sales level of nearly 10000 units in the next month of listing, with brilliant performance and exceeding market expectations. We believe that compared with the current pure electric platforms of the world's mainstream automobile enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric E platform 3.0 has the following core features: low cost, rich models, fast launch pace of new models, strong product competitiveness, etc.
In addition to dolphin and yuan plus, the new heavy-duty models of e-platform 3.0 - seal and sea lion will also be launched one after another. Among them, seal has entered the 354th batch of new car announcement of the Ministry of industry and information technology. According to industry practice, it is expected to be officially delivered at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter. The length of seal is 4.8m, the wheelbase is 2.92M, and the size and spatial parameters are better than model 3 (length is 4.694m, wheelbase is 2.875m), Seal power is divided into 2WD and 4WD. The peak power of motors before and after 4WD is 160kW and 230kw respectively, which is also better than 137 kW and 220kw of Tesla Model 3. According to the company's previous pricing strategy, we expect the seal price to be very competitive. Therefore, we believe that e-platform 3.0 is very competitive and has no less potential in the future than DMI.
2022 has high performance, predictable growth and great long-term potential. We expect that 22q2 company is expected to usher in a profit inflection point: 1) in the first quarter, the average price of Byd Company Limited(002594) car increased by 6 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0 yuan / set, and the effect is expected to be reflected in the second quarter; 2) The proportion of high price (pricing strategy) models, such as destroyer 05, song Pro DMI, song Max DMI and Han DMI, is increased, which is conducive to the significant improvement of the company's profitability. After the second quarter, under the background of scale effect and continuous improvement of product structure, Byd Company Limited(002594) single vehicle profit is expected to continue to rise. In the long run, Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI series models have few competitive products and are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the next few years; Pure electric vehicles will also show a trend of rapid growth (new models such as seals and sea lions will open a new era of Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric vehicles). If the price of lithium carbonate and other raw materials falls, the performance elasticity of Byd Company Limited(002594) will be greater in the next few years
Investment suggestion: maintain the "Buy-A" rating. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 8.01, 13.55 and 20.9 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE is 85.8, 50.7 and 32.9 times respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating and the six-month target price is 360 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the subsidy has declined sharply; The promotion of new products is less than expected
